I’m going to have a breakdown. The exit polls are coming in – possibly more heavily weighted towards women, but still – and the rumors are flying that it’s looking good for Kerry. And for the first time ever, he’s pulled ahead of Bush on the Tradesports market. I feel ill.
4 comments:
DON'T sweat it...we're all a little worried but if you follow the timeline:
Drudge comes out with his exit poll numbers (NRO discovered that they were provided by KE04), then the stock market tanks (it had been up), then tradesports changes.
I'd start worrying around 9:00 if Bush's not doing well.
In the mean time go here http://www.georgewbush.com/Call/default.aspx and make some calls to GOP GOTV
Eric,
You know better. First, the people at TradeSports are reading exactly what you are, and are acting accordingly. Second, you are taking the word of a group consisting of news outlets that have been in the tank for Kerry for months!! You are feeling exactly like they want you to feel: demoralized. This is their last chance, and they are using it to the end. Relax.
Sorry for 'anonymous' post; am long time reader yet first time commenter. DO NOT SWEAT THE TREADESPORTS DIVE FOR PRES BUSH.
First, volume for the Kerry contract is 1/10 that of Bush. Until 11:00AM Central today Bush was up 6 points on 1.1 million contracts traded; Kerry down 6 on 110k contracts traded. Between 11:00AM and 3:50pm Central a TOTAL of 28k Kerry contracts were purchased, for a total of 138k. So...someone came in for a total buy of 28k Kerry contracts, representing an investment of US$140,000. (By way of contrast, the Bush contract showed a total investment of roughly $2.8 million.) Concurrent with the 28k Kerry buy, there was a similar Bush SELL order placed...resulting in a ridiculous 'flip flopping' of the contracts.
In other words, there has been an overt attempt to sway this market....with remarkably little capital. I would give NO THOUGHT to and NO WORRY about the Tradesports market. Those 'long' Bush contracts should see an enormous return on capital from this thinly disguised manipulation.
FYI, I've been a foreign exchange trader since 1978...and nothing surprises me.
Chispa..in St. Louis
"I find it very interesting that when the heat got on, you dug yourself a hole and you crawled in it."
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