Thursday, September 30, 2004

The Enthusiasm Gap

All these polls are nice but, as the old cliché goes, the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day. So which candidate has the upper hand on excited, motivated voters? Read this and weep, Bob Shrum:

Forget the gender gap. The chasm that yawns the widest this election year is the Enthusiasm Gap.

Nearly two in three likely voters who support President Bush -- 65 percent -- said they were "very enthusiastic" about their candidate while 42 percent of Sen. John F. Kerry's supporters express similarly high levels of enthusiasm for their choice, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Poll.

That's a 23-point difference in relative excitement. Although the polling record is incomplete for earlier elections, the available data suggest that the enthusiasm gap in the 2000 presidential campaign was negligible, at best.
To put this another way: Bush’s poll numbers = floor. Kerry’s poll numbers = ceiling.

1 comment:

Jayson Javitz said...

Hey Eric:

I'll see you and I'll raise you.

IMO, Kerry's absolute ceiling would be right around 44 percent.

Why?

Well, there have been 13 elections since WWII in which an incumbent Prez or an inumbent VP was challeged for the Presidency. And the average popular vote share taken by those 13 challengers is 44.2 percent.

Senators make the worst Presidential candidates. Since WWII, in fact, sitting U.S. Senators have pulled less than 42 percent of the vote, on average. And Kerry not only is a Senator, he's a liberal Senator who's campaign already has degenerated into self-parody.

Yes, the Democratic Party will engage in the most disgraceful frenzy of voting fraud in history. Yes, the media will degenerate into outright lunacy. But, in the end, it won't matter. Liberal, flip-flopping Senators from Massachusetts don't beat incumbent GOP Presidents.

The DNC and the Dem fraud machine will have to work overtime for Kerry to match Clinton's 1992 vote take of 43 percent.

Best,

JJ