Thursday, February 27, 2020

Buy popcorn stock

Ace: " The Most Likely Result of the Democrat Party -- Now a 50% Likelihood -- is "No Winner/Brokered Convention"
How do we engineer this outcome?

Oh wait, that would be immoral, say the people who have been actively sabotaging the GOP for three election cycles in a row now.
South Carolina has an open primary and the fear/hope was that Republicans would vote for Bernie and force the final showdown between freedom and socialism.  But now the strategy should be to vote for Sundown Joe which would give him a boost into Super Tuesday which then would push the Democrats closer to a brokered convention where the superdelegates will kneecap Sanders.

By the way, I like to check the "betting odds" page on Real Clear Politics because it gives a more up-to-date status of the Democratic race than the lagging national polls.  Let's just say that the Bloomberg boomlet is officially over and Sundown Joe has moved back into second place thanks to mini-Mike's awfulness and Bernie's love for Castro

Look out Bernie!

Wednesday, February 26, 2020

Gaffe: accidentally telling the truth

The Hill: "Bloomberg called Social Security a 'Ponzi scheme' as mayor."
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg referred to Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme” as mayor and called for cuts to the program as well as to Medicare and Medicaid.

"I don't know if Bernie Madoff got his idea from there, but if there's ever a Ponzi scheme, people say Madoff was the biggest? Wrong. Social Security is, far and away," Bloomberg said in 2009 on the radio program “Live from City Hall” in audio reported by CNN’s KFile.

"We are giving monies out with the next guy's money coming in and at the end of — when the music stops — it's just not gonna be enough chairs for everybody," Bloomberg added.
No less than the Social Security Trustees have said that the music will stop in 2035 and then benefits will be cut back 25% to match incoming revenues.  I wonder how Americans who have paid into the system for their entire lives will feel about this negative rate of return.

I don't think the issue has come up once during the Democratic debates.

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

This is why I hate these debates and the mainstream media

Twitchy: "Elizabeth Warren revives her story about being fired for being visibly pregnant at #DemDebate."

Warren has been repeating this lie for a year now and it is a lie but the moderators are absolutely passive and non-confrontational about a false talking point that she's been repeating forever.

Democratic debate

I cannot believe that a party that got absolutely rolled on judicial nominees because Harry Reid changed the rules is now advocating for eliminating the filibuster.

These people are crazy.  

Saturday, February 22, 2020

The madness of the Democrats

Reason Online: "Bernie Sanders Wins the Nevada Caucus. He's on Track To Win the Democratic Presidential Nomination."

The Predictit market for Sanders took a huge jump up tonight.

Extra - Twitchy: "‘Democrats are going to have to sober up’: Hosts of well-known right-wing network MSNBC melt down over Bernie Sanders’ Nevada win." 

Prediction time: Nevada caucuses

Here's my guess:


Yup, I'm predicting a fifth place finish for Biden, despite the polls.  I don't believe there is such a thing as a Biden supporter.  I think when they ask people in these polls, they recognize his name, but that doesn't mean they're going to caucus or vote for him.  His support is a mile wide and an inch deep and nobody is going to stand in a high school gymnasium for two hours for Joe Biden.

Also: Warren tricked me last time into thinking she had support in New Hampshire.  I won't be fooled again.  As Mona Charen recently wrote, Amy is the Democrats' only hope so I'm putting her ahead of Warren.

Mark it down.

Friday, February 21, 2020

It's a wonder nobody trusts the media

Red State: "Shocker: That ‘Bombshell’ About Trump Offering Julian Assange a Pardon to Cover-Up for Russia Was Total Garbage."  "Once again, the media ran with another absolutely garbage Russia collusion story, not bothering to confirm it and not bothering to even get a comment from the person at the center of it (Rohrabacher). And once again, we’ll see no corrections, no apologies, and no introspection. They’ll just move on to the next hoax. But don’t you dare question their value and credibility."

Thursday, February 20, 2020

It's a smash hit!

Townhall: "Oh Good, Nearly 20 Million Saw the Democrats' Bloodbath Wednesday Night."

It wasn't my imagination: Bloomberg was terrible and he's absolutely cratered in the prediction markets.  He might as well set $400 million on fire in the middle of Central Park.

Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

The Amazon empire

There's a Frontline special on tonight about the rise of Jeff Bezos and Amazon.  This leads to one of my favorite memes:

Spare the Rod

Associated Press: "President Trump goes on clemency spree, and the list is long."

One of them was former Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich who, as Legal Insurrection reminisces, was really guilty and really a jerk.  Of course, as the AP article notes: "But Trump also commuted the sentences of several women with more sympathetic cases to balance out the men convicted of corruption."

Well.  Be that as it may, these pardons smell and I can't understand Trump's rationale except that it's the opening gambit to rationalize Roger Stone's pardon. 

Monday, February 17, 2020

Wow, what a great plan

CNBC: "Bloomberg unveils plans for Americans’ Social Security, retirement savings."
"Bloomberg’s plan calls for setting a new, higher minimum benefit to prevent low-income seniors from falling below the federal poverty line."
OK, how about some details?
"Exactly how much benefits would be increased under Bloomberg’s plan was not disclosed."

"Bloomberg’s plan does not stipulate whether he would increase those [payroll tax] thresholds."

"Experts generally agree that repairing the program will require tax increases, benefit cuts or a combination of both. Bloomberg’s plan does not include details on how he would extend the program’s solvency."
This Social Security debate always circles around to the same unpleasant truth that taxes will need to go up and benefits will need to be pared back.  But nobody ever says so.

Saturday, February 15, 2020

Friday, February 14, 2020

The magic (D)

GQ: "Why Is Bloomberg's Long History of Egregious Sexism Getting a Pass?" - "The surging Democratic presidential candidate and Bloomberg LP have fielded nearly 40 sexual harassment and discrimination lawsuits over decades."

Gee, I don't know.  Let's ask Governor Ralph Northam.

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Go away, Liz

In hindsight, I should have given this story more weight: "Awkward: Liz Warren Interrupts People Eating in a Diner—Who Clearly Want Her to Leave Them Alone."  She couldn't even crack 10% support in the New Hampshire counties bordering Massachusetts.  Yeesh

Prediction time: New Hampshire

Here's my prediction:

Sanders wins by 8%

I want to believe in the Klobuchar rally but I think there are enough Bay Staters living over the border in New Hampshire to push Pocahontas to third place.

As for Biden: this could be the end tonight, an end that is well-deserved.  I've never seen somebody run such an incompetent campaign.  He could have taken his lumps in Iowa but bounced back with a positive campaign with detailed policy positions.  Instead he decided that the problem is he wasn't screaming like Bernie before repeating - louder - that he's been around forever.  Also, that Buttigieg kid is just a mayor.

You almost couldn't make this up but first he took a break from campaigning, then called a potential voter a "lying dog-faced pony soldier" before he decamped from New Hampshire moments after the polls opened.  Can you imagine being a Biden campaign worker in New Hampshire?  My lord, why would you even vote for Joe after such a disrespectful departure?

I predicted that Joe would drop out after Nevada.  I might have been one state too late.

Extra - Vodkapundit: "Biden 2020: A Pre-Post Mortem."  "Perhaps nothing during this primary season will give me greater pleasure than to write Joe Biden's political obituary, and I might not have to wait long to do it, if recent caucus results, poll numbers, debate performances, and fundraising troubles are anything to go by."

Sunday, February 09, 2020

Shocker: the press does its job

Twitchy: "Does he think we’re stupid? Bernie Sanders gets the front-runner treatment on the talk shows, and it doesn’t go well."

Instead of allowing the usual evasions, both Chuck Todd (!) and Margaret Brennan pushed back on Bernie Sanders on the economy and health care, respectively.  Bernie's entire socialist pitch is that we're living in an economic wasteland. Americans just don't feel that way.

Also, Chuck Todd cornered Bernie on his promise to release his medical records

Saturday, February 08, 2020

Suicide squad

Michael Barone: "Democrats 2020 race is starting to look like a suicide pact."
There’s plenty of material here for an updated version of former President Ronald Reagan’s 1984 “Morning in America” ad, which, over gauzy, feel-good video, highlighted one improved statistic after another, with only a brief shot of the president himself.

What do the Democrats have to offer in return? Criticism of the killing of Iran’s terrorist chief. Tales of economic woe at a time of record-low unemployment and what Trump can reasonably call a “blue-collar boom.”

Six months ago, Democrats were savoring the humiliating defeat of Trump. Today, thanks in part to blunders from Iowa to impeachment, they fear that he, like his three predecessors, may be catching favorable winds and sailing out of the political doldrums toward reelection.
The Soleimani position in last night's debate was an unforced error: America takes out a guy the Pentagon says is responsible for over 600 American deaths and this is a bad thing?  I can't wait for this argument to re-emerge in a general election debate.

Last night's debate

Amy Klobuchar was the winner of this debate if only because she seized the spotlight to say that America wasn't going to accept a socialist candidate.  Everybody else was too afraid of alienating Bernie's base.  Plus she had a funny (scripted) line about how Trump criticized Canada for cutting him out of "Home Alone 2."

Biden's the guy.  He's the guy who's been in Washington for a 100 years.  He single-handedly built the Hoover Dam and gave women the vote.  George W. Bush tricked him on his Iraq war vote, though.

The experience argument is Biden's biggest strength and his most glaring weakness.  He wants everybody to know he's been around forever and is ready to take control.  At the same time, he clings himself to Obama ("the Obama-Biden administration") so tightly even though Obama was a first-term Senator who a couple years before his election was a community organizer.

Friday, February 07, 2020

I'll repeat this yet again

The Presidential debates should be all "yes/no" questions.  It really does not matter one whit what question is asked, the candidates just launch into their stump speeches.

Perfect example: Pete was asked if Soleimani would be alive or dead under a President Buttigieg.  He was asked twice and simply refuses to answer.

Good riddance

Red State: "Alexander Vindman Is Escorted Out of the White House and Pearls Are Clutched."

This dude had nothing to offer except the belief that he should have been running U.S. foreign policy, not that guy who was elected.

Trump caps off a pretty good week

Hot Air: "Surprise! Job Creation Rebounds In January As Economy Adds 225K." 

Thursday, February 06, 2020

Biden implodes

I was in a meeting all day so I'm just now catching up with the news.  Check out the prediction markets for the Democrat nomination: Biden is imploding so thoroughly that Bloomberg is now in second place behind Sanders in line for the nomination.

If you've never seen this graph, it's a wonder to behold the inexorable drop of Liz Warren from her tulip bulb frenzy days of October to single-digit land now.

I'm a-gonna call it now: Joe Biden will drop out after Nevada.  My rationale is that his team has talked non-stop about the "firewall" in South Carolina but by then the handwriting will be on the wall and he'll drop out to avoid yet another defeat.

Extra - Sure, Joe, take a break from New Hampshire.  Great idea.

Wednesday, February 05, 2020

Happy Exoneration Day!

Let's recap Nancy Pelosi's week:

1) San Francisco loses Super Bowl
2) Democrats completely botch Iowa caucuses; Sleepy Joe Biden comes in 4th
3) State of the Union address; Gallup reports Trump has hit highest approval rating of his Presidency
4) Exoneration Day!

Tuesday, February 04, 2020

Iowa brings in a consultant, ha ha ha!

It's 62% Pete

Hot Air: "The (Partial) Results Of The Iowa Caucus! Update: Buttigieg 26.9, Sanders 25.1, Warren 18.3, Biden 15.6."

There are so many stories that demonstrate what a train wreck this has become: 1) it makes the Democrats look completely inept, 2) the Bernie Bros will flip out because they currently lead in the popular vote but are trailing in the delegate count, 3) Joe Biden got his ass whipped and his vote count went down on the second ballot and 4) turnout was low.

Depending on how the final count goes, there's a very real chance that Sundown Joe could finish fifth behind Amy Klobuchar.  That would make me so happy.

Extra - Washington Examiner: "Come on, we basically know how Iowa voted: Against Biden."

What a dumpster fire

Woke up this morning believing I'd get some results from Iowa.  Nope.

Fox News: "Iowa caucus vote totals delayed amid 'inconsistencies'; campaigns lash out at 'crazy' state party."  And, of course, the joke is "...and you want to run my health care."

Sunday, February 02, 2020

The electability argument is collapsing

Washington Examiner: "New South Carolina poll is a disaster for Joe Biden."

I predict a third place finish for Sundown Joe in Iowa, behind Sanders and Buttigieg, mostly due to his strategy of telling voters to "vote for someone else." 

Saturday, February 01, 2020

Get over it

Federalist: "Yes, Trump’s Acquittal Is Real, And It’s Spectacular" - "The most amazing thing about Democrats and their allies in the media is that they never actually lose. Any time it seems like they lose, it’s actually the result of cheating and chicanery."

Extra - American Spectator: "How Not to Impeach a President" - "Arrogance and incompetence were all the spiteful Dems had to offer."