Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Pennsylvania split - Can the Democrats win the White House without the Keystone State? I was surprised to see that, based on the current polls, Hillary would win there against McCain but Obama would not. Hmmm...maybe Howard Wolfson has a point on electability in "big" states or maybe he's just lowing expectations for Hill's less-than-double-digit win.

Extra - Same deal in New York? New York?

10 comments:

Number Man said...

If it comes out of a horse, and it's poop, they can call it "surprising new numbers" all day, but it ain't gonna change the reality of what it is.

The 2004 exit numbers came out wrong. Many of the 2008 primary polls have already been botched. So it's certainly not worth acknowledging a poll of 576 people that reverses New York's voting history, both long- and short-term.

In 2004, New York went Democratic by a 59-40 margin. In New York City, which is merely the site of Ground Zero, the result was 81-19%.

New York was that far ahead of the voting curve four years ago. Since then, how red have things gotten there? Two of the state's six Republican U.S. Representatives have already bowed out before the 2008 elections, including the high-profile Tom Reynolds, who comes from an allegedly "safe" Republican district. Dear, dear. If only they'd held out until this miraculous poll was announced.

In the February "Super Tuesday" primary, Barack Obama got 751,000 votes in New York to McCain's 333,000. Small problem for the right: Obama finished second to Clinton by 318,000 votes. That's no typo: the margin between the two Democratic leaders almost matched McCain's winning GOP total.

The poll says "New York is McCain Country." Anyone with a brain says "Horse poop."

Anonymous said...

News flash, number man, primary voters are energetic partisan voters but they only make a portion of the electorate that votes in the general election. The overall electorate may have decided they don't like one of the candidates from the democratic side.

Anonymous said...

The argument that McCain can't beat Obama because republican primary turn out is low, is total hogwash. He's been the presumptive nominee for 3 months now; turn out is low, because there's no point in voting. I didn't vote in my state's primary, either, because guess why? I've got better things to do with my time than to drag my butt to the polling site to vote for someone who has already locked up the nomination.

Democratic turn out is through the roof because they're all understandably crapping their pants about which one-term senator is less qualified. *cough*

But you keep tokin' on that pipe, numbers man.

Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg

Number Man said...

Democratic turn out is through the roof because they're all understandably crapping their pants about which one-term senator is less qualified.

Uh.... um.... what?!? The word "understandably" is the cherry on top of your whatinthebluehellareyoutalkingabout sundae.

He's been the presumptive nominee for 3 months now; turn out is low, because there's no point in voting.

Nope. The NY primary was one of the 24 February 5th contests that made McCain the presumptive nominee.

News flash, number man, primary voters are energetic partisan voters but they only make a portion of the electorate that votes in the general election.

Thanks; that part was confusing me. I thought Obama was President of New York already.

Primary turnout is merely one indicator, along with accompanying new voter registration and switched registrations, which have been *hugely* tilted towards the Dems. It's the first phase of the whipping you already realize you're going to absorb.

And if Obama and Clinton choke each other onstage at the convention, McCain still ain't winning New York.

Anonymous said...

Yes, "understandably", number dude. It's no mystery the dems a on the verge of a 1968-vintage melt-down. But I understand how a kool-aid drinker might not see that. Obama will very likely get the nod, but not without lots & lots of blue blood on the floor.

When Mitt Romney dropped out on 8 January (3 months ago), McCain became the presumptive nominee. Don't give any "but what about about Huckabee.." BS. Everyone knew he'd never get it. Huck's like John Edwards; he's been running for VP his whole frigging career.

It does Republicans no harm for Dems to believe they've got the GE wrapped-up with a pretty pink ribbon. It's just more rope for you to hang yourselves with, as usual.
Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg

Number Man said...

Mitt Romney dropped out of the race on February 7, after losing in New York and elsewhere.

Better go back to Diggity-Dang-Dreamland, where your fondest wishes come true and the magical cupcake people always applaud your political acumen.

Purplesaurus Rex said...

No one should doubt that John McCain will be a credible and competitive national candidate.

But if Snoop-DDD thinks McCain has a ghost of a wisp of a shred of chance at beating Barack Obama in New York State, he shouldn't be accusing *anyone* of being a "Kool-Aid drinker." He's the one crashing through the wall of common sense, screaming "OH YEAHHHH!!!"

Anonymous said...

Numbers idiot:

but...but...but..."Mitt Romney dropped out of the race on February 7"?!?!??!?! Wrong, Flatulance grrl. CPAC wasn't his consession speech; it was in January. Understand that you were probably too stoned to notice.

"Snoop-DDD thinks McCain has a ghost of a wisp of a shred of chance at beating Barack Obama in New York State..."

Typical knickerbocker; the whole world revolves around your 2-inch, flacid cock, doesn't it? New York is the same insane asylum that elected the lying whore-robot Hillary to the senate. But you're pretty happy with that decision, aren't you? Will the U.S. follow New York's retarded lead and elect Obama?

"Whay mah pipe?..." Whey mah damn pipe at, bitch?!?? Need mah PIPE!!!!

SD3

Timeline: Earth said...

For the crazies in the audience:
Jan. 3-- Romney comes in 2nd in Iowa (Huckabee first);
Jan. 5-- Romney wins Wyoming;
Jan. 8-- Romney comes in 2nd in New Hampshire (McCain first);
Jan. 15-- Romney wins Michigan;
Jan. 19-- Romney wins Nevada, 4th in South Carolina;
Jan. 29-- Romney comes in 2nd in Florida (McCain first);
Feb. 2-- Romney wins Maine.
Feb. 5-- Super Tuesday. Romney, already sagging, does worse than expected. California (where Romney had been leading in the Feb. 4 polls) is the most damaging of several bad results.
Feb. 7-- Romney suspends his campaign.

You guys really are cracking up, aren't you? And it's only April...

The incredible edible egg said...

Numbers idiot: but...but...but... Wrong, Flatulance grrl. ...you were probably too stoned to notice....Typical knickerbocker; the whole world revolves around your 2-inch, flacid cock, doesn't it? New York is the same insane asylum that elected the lying whore-robot... follow New York's retarded lead and elect Obama... "Whay mah pipe?..." Whey mah damn pipe at, bitch?!?? Need mah PIPE!!!!

This is a brain.

This is a brain nurtured on Fox News, Malkin.com and Little Green Footballs.

Any questions?