New Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll

Two-way: Bush 48% - Kerry 42%
Three-way: Bush 47% - Kerry 40% - Nader 3%

Regardless of how they plan to vote, half of the public believes Bush is going to win in November, 30 percent believe Kerry will win and 20 percent are unsure or think it is too early to say.

That seems to jibe with the sentiment on the Iowa Electronic Market.