In which I (happily) admit I’m wrong

Just to show that I’m not above correcting myself: for months Jayson at Polipundit has been predicting that the GOP will pick up between one and three Senate seats in the 2006 election and I’ve been highly skeptical. Historically, the President’s party has never picked up Senate seats in the sixth year of his Administration and typically loses three or more seats. But the Democrats are in such disarray, fighting amongst themselves over policy, that they can’t mount a coordinated and credible campaign. Furthermore, as Mickey Kaus retells, political analyst Michael Barone thinks 2006 might be the election year to buck history: “In the long run, Republicans are well positioned to increase their numbers in both Senate and House.”

Extra – From Barone Blog, here’s “Bush’s gains and losses”: “Where did Bush gain most (6 percent or more)? In districts that can be characterized by the following labels: Italians, Jacksonians, Latinos, and Asians.”