Wednesday, June 27, 2012

All the cool kids are doing it

Well, I guess it's time to put it on the line and make a prediction about tomorrow's Obamacare ruling.  I'm not going to overthink it: the conservative justices were pretty transparent during oral arguments that they thought the Commerce clause has limits.  The individual mandate goes down 5-4.

Assume that this vote is decided first in the Court chambers.  Obamacare has so many intertwined clauses that it seems impossible the law could stand without the mandate tent-pole.  Plus, there's the germane matter that Obamacare was passed without a severability clause; under normal circumstances this means the whole law must be thrown out if one part is found unconstitutional.  Then again, the Court can rule however it chooses, so who knows?  But the justices must also know that if they let this mess stand in toto they'd just be inviting years of contentious new cases as everything unravels.  I say the whole law goes down 6-3.

One final prediction: SCOTUSBlog will have a record traffic day tomorrow.  I have spoken!

Extra - I also think the White House knows which way the ruling is leaning.

More - Another prediction: "The Internet will break and Twitter will crack under the strain."


Anonymous said...

You'd better hope it's not 6-3. There's only one feasible 6-3 vote, and it's the one that would transform Fox News into the Suicide Hotline.

another Eric Lindholm said...

Wow, Roberts a bleeding-heart liberal! Who wudda thunk it?

Anonymous said...

Impeach Earl Warren... er, Roberts!

Nigel Tufnel said...

Evidently you didn't over think your predictions, old boy.

Sorry, man - couldn't resist.

Next up: Penalties for failing to pray to Mecca 5 times a day!

Eric said...

You guys!

What can I say? I have to sit here and take it like a man.

Funniest response I saw today: "Eric Holder insists Fast and Furious was a tax."

Eric said...

By the way: who saw Roberts as the breakaway vote here? Kennedy was viewed as the swing vote but he wanted to overturn the whole thing.

The fact that the SC kept this ruling under wraps is astonishing.