Election 2006 – According to Slate’s numbers guy, the Democrats are mathematically incapable of taking control of the House.
Of course last week I declared that my NASCAR fantasy league was mathematically incapable of losing for the season. Thank you very much, Kurt Busch.
3 comments:
The odds are against everything going one party's way? What can one add but "Duhhhhhh!"
The money quote:
Plus, for Republicans, selling the impending Democratic victory resets expectations—in the current environment, the Democrats could pick up 14 seats and still come off as losers.
Having their majority reduced to a whisper will give the GOP capital, political capital. Or at least that's what we'll be hearing (and hearing, and hearing) on Wednesday morning: "HOORAY! We didn't get the crap TOTALLY kicked out of us!"
This will be a status quo election, with a slight tilt to the Dems (and that will be due to historical forces and Republican mistakes, not because they deserve it in any way).
If the Senate turns out evenly divided (it will be close), it'll be interesting to see which party Lieberman caucuses with.
The Democrats would have to get about 90% of the breaks to reach a majority, so they won't. And in the event that they do, you won't have to wait long for the immediate "sets the GOP up perfectly for 2008" mantra.
Of course, the Dems aren't quite organized enough to decide on their line of electoral B.S. or to repeat it into the ground, so they have their own spin problems.
Joe Lieberman will, naturally, caucus with his fellow lawmakers in the Connecticut for Lieberman Party. Cake will be served.
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