Thursday, October 13, 2005

Here I go with my Cassandra act again

And indeed, the burden of Cassandra's "gift" is evident in mythology. She predicted the outcome of many disastrous events. In one memorable example, Cassandra announced the dire consequences of the Trojans accepting the infamous Wooden Horse from their Greek opponents. But as Apollo made certain, no one believed Cassandra when she warned her companions about the future. And this, in the end, was to be Cassandra's tragic fate.”

Oh well. Here are some stats from the Heritage foundation, shamelessly lifted from The Conspiracy to Keep you Poor and Stupid:

Unless Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are reformed, lawmakers face three options:
A) Raise taxes every year until taxes are 60 percent ($11,000 per household) higher than today.
B) Eliminate every federal program except Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid by 2045; or
C) Do nothing and watch the federal debt expand so much that even a minor interest rate response would induce a spiral of rising debt and interest rates, threatening the entire economy.
I know, I know. Move along. There are some “boobies” posts on Fark today.

2 comments:

JG said...

"C) Do nothing and watch the federal debt expand so much that even a minor interest rate response would induce a spiral of rising debt and interest rates, threatening the entire economy."

C) is actually much worse than that. GAO forecast that on year 2000 law and economic projections annual federal deficits would reach 20% of GDP by about 2045 -- larger than the entire federal government today -- and be rocketing straight up due to compounding. It ended its 75 year projection early there, saying government as we know it would be unsustainable and end.

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d01385t.pdf

Note that year 2000 projections were much more favorable than today's -- it was still boom time, surpluses were projected for years to come, there'd been no Bush tax cuts, no new multi-trillion dollar drug benefit to pay for, and still...

Also note that the government can't use the age old favorite method of inflating away its obligations and debts here. Social Security is inflation indexed (worse, wage indexed) and Medicare and Medicaid are paid for in real dollars.

There's really and truly no way out but massive tax hikes or benefit cuts or both starting in about 10 years. A lot of people are going to be in for unhapppy surprises.

Cracker Barrel Philosopher said...

I've got a boobie post today too!