You can ring my bell curve - I checked out Nate Silver's latest analysis on the Presidential race and he's updated his "chance of winning" for Obama to 80% meaning he's still a 4-to-1 favorite over Romney.
I know that Silver is following his model but you'd be hard-pressed to find a bookie to give you those odds even before the debate. Very small changes in the likelihood of winning certain states (e.g. Ohio) will shift these projections rapidly since we're on the steep side of the electoral vote distribution. Stay tuned for the big update after the new polls come rolling in.
3 comments:
Intrade has slightly different odds...
Intrade is too small and has too little money at stake to be anything more than an entertaining diversion. A lone bettor singlehandedly altered Intrade's "wisdom of crowds" odds for John McCain in 2008.
The UK's BetFair, the world's largest online betting exchange and an identical service, currently has 74.5% of its money riding on Obama.
You can also bet on the electoral college, with six ranges of results for each candidate. The betting company is offering six ranges of electoral options for Obama: 309 or under, 310-329, 330-349, 350-369, 370-389, and 390 or over.
BetFair's choices for Romney: 169 or under, 170-189, 190-209, 210-229, 230-249, and 250 or over.
Earlier this year, Intrade rated Romney as a 97% favorite to win the Colorado primary. Oh well, seemed like a good idea at the time...
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