Monday, October 15, 2012

Nate Silver's ridiculous analysis - After a relentless march in the national polls towards Romney and now a dead heat in the electoral vote count (including counting North Carolina - laughably - as a "toss up"), the NY Times pollster finds that Obama's odds of winning are only 2-1 (66% - 34%).


Unridiculous said...

RCP lists Michigan as a "tossup state." The GOP and its super PACs bought $0 in Michigan ads last week. RCP lists Pennsylvania as a tossup state. The GOP and its super PACs bought $0 in Pennsylvania ads last week. Overall, the Koch Brohers haven't bought an anti-Obama ad in a month; they've redirected their money to downballot races. Follow the money, or lack thereof.

Should the two candidates split RCP's list of tossup states evenly between them, Obama wins the election. If we assume that neither Michigan nor Pennsylvania nor North Carolina are authentic tossups, and Obama and Romney split the remainder of the tossup states between them, Obama wins by 284-254. RCP has a "no tossups" option that currently shows Romney has climbed to within 50 in the electoral race: a 294-244 result.

Yes, it's thrilling for conservatives that the polls have shown Romney having his first good week, but you're either misunderstanding or misrepresenting what it is that Nate Silver and RCP are measuring.

Anonymous said...

Don't look now:

"President Obama now holds only a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, a state thought only a month ago to be safely in the incumbent’s corner, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University released on Tuesday.
The survey of likely voters conducted from Oct. 12-14, reports the president is ahead of the GOP presidential nominee in the Keystone State by just 4 percentage points, 50 percent to 46 percent. Romney has gained 8 points on Obama since a late-September Quinnipiac poll, when the president led, 54 percent to 42 percent."

Anonymous said...

Don't look now, but if this one poll is correct, and Obama really is down to 50% with 4% undecided, Obama wins.

The Real Clear Politics average still has Obama ahead by 5 points in the state, with the Quinnipiac poll having been factored in.

When Romney and the Republicans begin to think Pennsylvania is genuinely gettable, they will spend more than zero dollars trying to get it.

The Sanity Inspector said...

The Winston-Salem, NC newspaper this past weekend endorsed Obama. So, the Tarheel State may well be in play.