Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Get ready for a lot of ridicule, Nate

As Romney marks a new high in the RCP poll average, the NY Times' Nate Silver actually increases Obama's chance of winning to >70%.  Ace of Spades responds:
Nate Silver just emailed to say Obama's odds of winning improved to 640%, which means that, in addition to winning the election, Obama now has a good shot of being crowned King of the Third French Empire and the next Celebrity Apprentice.
Everybody at the Times is now Pauline Kael.


Roger Bournival said...

This is what I want to know - what shot does Obama have at the Tour de France titles from 1999 to 2005?

Hi-Yo, Silver! said...

Nate Silver's estimate is insanely, laughably wrong. And yet, it's essentially identical to the current lines at all of the betting houses! Therefore, why don't you make yourself rich by putting a ton of money on Mitt Romney? You'd be a fool to let this opportunity get away from you.

Anonymous said...

Conservatives weren't bitching and crying when Nate Silver's system went 34-for-36 two years ago in an all-GOP year, with one of the two misses being a call against Harry Reid.

As Romney marks a new high in the RCP poll average, the NY Times' Nate Silver actually increases Obama's chance of winning to >70%.

Real Clear Politics, right now, on Mitt Romney's day of days, projects Barack Obama to win 281-257. Pauline Kael's ghost must be twins.

Anonymous said...

VP and Hi-Yo somehow anticipated today's 538 column, which covers betting markets, Intrade, and why 538's odds are what they are.

After explaining why a distinctly pro-Obama poll result from yesterday was given little weight in his formula, Silver continues:

"The FiveThirtyEight model is sometimes perceived as being incredibly bold for having Mr. Obama as a two-to-one favorite despite what is certainly very close polling, but the few other models that seek to frame the election in probabilistic terms tend to give Mr. Obama an even clearer advantage, putting his odds at between 80 and 95 percent.

I would be happy to engage those other forecasters in a (good-natured) argument about why I think their models are considerably too confident about Mr. Obama’s chances. But if the FiveThirtyEight model is thought of as “Obama-leaning” relative to the conventional wisdom, it is “Romney-leaning” relative to the other models that use a similar approach based on state polling data."