Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Obama better get a huge turnout from Chicago cemeteries - Interesting tidbit from Gallup via Q&O: Romney leads by 6% among people who have already voted and 6% by people who plan to vote on election day.  So if Romney leads by a substantial margin with past, present, and future voters, Obama may need another dimension of time to pull this off.

Extra - Good roundup of stuff from Nice Deb.

More - Big Government: "Gallup: Obama's early vote advantage collapses 22 points over 2008."


Rashomon Reports said...

That Gallup margin is 250% the size of yesterday's second most Romney-friendly poll margin, let alone the consensus of the nine other national polls released. P.S. Nate Silver is a bum.

L.V. Mayer said...

It's more than just a proportional gap. Every other pollster that is presenting early voting data is showing the exact opposite of Gallup. By next week, either there's going to be a poll-ocaust, with only one or two firms left standing... or Gallup has some adjustments to make. Considering that Gallup got its registered/likely voter screen wrong in 2008, and really wrong in 2010, I have a hunch.

However, Gallup also points us towards a possible answer for discrepancies in this year's polling. Their data shows Obama at +4 in the West, +6 in the North, +6 in the East, and -22 in the South. This is compatible with both Gallup's overall finding of Romney being ahead in total votes, and Nate Silver's projection of a comfortable electoral lead for Obama, and a 3/4ths chance of victory. Running up the score and winning Mississippi by 33% instead of 3% nets Romney an extra no electoral votes.

Scott Elliott said...

Hi Eric, I lost your email so I hope you don't mind me pointing to my 2012 Election Results page. I plan on updating the battleground state electoral votes every 15 minutes as the returns come in on election night.

By the way, I hope you're doing well these days. Would you mind sending me an email so I'll have your email address that would be good.

Scott Elliott said...

That last sentence was a mess. I meant to type "Would you mind sending me an email so I'll have your email address? That would be great!" :)