Thursday, August 31, 2006

More Americans: good or bad?

Some say bad: “The United States, now at nearly 300 million people, is the only industrialized country that has experienced strong population growth in the last decade, creating concerns that the boom and Americans' huge appetites for food, water, and land will sharply erode the nation's natural resources in coming years, according to a report released yesterday.”

How much growth?: “While some researchers focus on alarming fertility rates in poor countries, which grew by 16.3 percent from 1995 to 2005, the US population grew by 10.6 percent in that period, or 29 million people, the report noted. Europe during that time grew by 504,000 people, or less than 1 percent. The US population boom was attributed to high birth rates, immigration, and increased longevity.”

You’ll never go wrong with the Thomas Malthus view on population growth because of the intuitive “geometric rate vs. arithmetic rate” comparison. The only problem is that it’s been wrong for 200 years, and there’s no evidence that will change. With regard to my favorite issue, the high birth and immigration rates will alleviate the entitlement crunch over the next couple decades. Conversely, in Europe the flight of young professionals (i.e. taxpayers) to America will severely test the social safety net.

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