Friday, October 21, 2005

Two out of three ain’t bad

The other day, I predicted 1.) Bush wouldn’t withdraw Miers 2.) Miers wouldn’t withdraw herself 3.) Miers would pass out of the Judiciary committee and 4.) gain approval from the Senate.

Predictions #1 and #2 look solid:

In an interview with National Review this morning, a senior Senate Republican said he firmly expects President Bush to continue to stand behind Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers. The Republican said the president is absolutely convinced, without question, that Miers is the right choice, and that even if Miers herself wanted to withdraw, the president would not accept it.
But #3 looks shaky, making #4 moot:

Under a bipartisan agreement, Supreme Court nominations can't be killed in committee. But if all the Committee Democrats and even one Republican vote against her, the vote will be 9-9 and Miers will go to the Senate floor without a recommendation that she be approved. This will make it much harder to get Miers confirmed on the Senate floor. It will be harder still -- probably impossible -- if ten or more Senators vote against her in committee.
Maybe Charles Krauthammer has it right: time to look for an exit strategy.


Hugh Briss said...

"I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it."

It's just 2 weeks until the first anniversary of that quote!

Anonymous said...


You may be right, but I am not sure that a Republican on the Committee will go against the President. The Republicans feel that if Miers gets rejected, it will severely damaging for the President.

But my fear is that if she gets confirmed, she will be a lasting reminder to all the heartbroken conservatives of how they were let down. This could spell bad news in '06 and '08.


Eric said...

Debate Guy,

Yes it would be damaging for Bush in the short run, but all would be forgiven among the conservatives if a Michael Luttig or Priscilla Owen made the Court. Hell, at this point, I think they're taking a second look at Alberto Gonzales.

Matthew said...

Just for the record, #3 is also solid. Senate rules guarantee that Supreme Court nominees get a floor vote -- no matter what the vote is in committee.