Thursday, June 01, 2017

No, 23 million aren't going to be "kicked off" insurance

Daily Caller: "Reports That 23 Million Americans Will Lose Health Care Are WAY Off."
Nineteen million of the 23 million people said to be losing their coverage don’t currently have coverage, according to Forbes. The Congressional Budget Office arrived at that number by assuming many millions of people who don’t have coverage now but are predicted to gain coverage under Obamacare by 2026.

These misguided projections are the result of a combination of factors including an outsized faith in the influence of Obamacare’s individual mandate, overconfidence in the number of states that will seek to expand medicaid in the next few years and a reliance on demonstrably false 2016 projections of future exchange enrollment.
Basically, the CBO estimate of total insured is based on assumptions about the individual mandate, guesses which have been way off target thus far.

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