Wave election - The conservative-leaning Election Projection currently
forecasts the GOP pickup in the 2010 House election at 19 seats. But Nate Silver uses a regression model based on polling and
predicts a 51 seat pickup for the Republicans with a potential high of 79 seats. Buh-bye Nancy.
4 comments:
Silver doesn't "predict" that. The two paragraphs immediately following the 51-seat number explicitly state his qualifiers. Several of the posters are teasing Silver about the breadth of his "15-to-70-seat pickup" range.
Wave elections rarely happen to the benefit of either splintered or unpopular parties, and the GOP is currently both. There's still a ways to go before the customary midterm flip morphs into "1994: the even bigger sequel."
The Bunghole-in Chief is working hard to make the poll come true.
He'll succeed.
We are living in historic times:
Electing the first black president - historic
Deficits and debt - historic
Disapproval of congress and politics - historic
Fall in president's popularity - historic
Independents running away from Dems by margins that are - historic
(I could go on...)
Why wouldn't the mid-terms be historic?
Here's my prediction:
Dems will lose
- over 80 House seats
- 11-14 Senate seats
- net 10-12 state governorships
Fall in president's popularity - historic
Hear that, 92% to 23%? It took a whole year, but you're finally in the clear!
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