Friday, April 09, 2010

Wave election - The conservative-leaning Election Projection currently forecasts the GOP pickup in the 2010 House election at 19 seats. But Nate Silver uses a regression model based on polling and predicts a 51 seat pickup for the Republicans with a potential high of 79 seats. Buh-bye Nancy.


Anonymous said...

Silver doesn't "predict" that. The two paragraphs immediately following the 51-seat number explicitly state his qualifiers. Several of the posters are teasing Silver about the breadth of his "15-to-70-seat pickup" range.

Wave elections rarely happen to the benefit of either splintered or unpopular parties, and the GOP is currently both. There's still a ways to go before the customary midterm flip morphs into "1994: the even bigger sequel."

Vermont Woodchuck said...

The Bunghole-in Chief is working hard to make the poll come true.

He'll succeed.

Anonymous said...

We are living in historic times:

Electing the first black president - historic

Deficits and debt - historic

Disapproval of congress and politics - historic

Fall in president's popularity - historic

Independents running away from Dems by margins that are - historic

(I could go on...)

Why wouldn't the mid-terms be historic?

Here's my prediction:

Dems will lose

- over 80 House seats

- 11-14 Senate seats

- net 10-12 state governorships

I predict Obama's two legs will turn Republican, too. said...

Fall in president's popularity - historic

Hear that, 92% to 23%? It took a whole year, but you're finally in the clear!