Sunday, April 15, 2007

So it's going to be Rudy Giuliani vs. Not Hillary - Found via the latest Atlantic magazine, here's a study on early presidential polls from the Pew Research Center. It seems that early poll leaders among GOP candidates tend to go on to win the nomination. However, the Democrats only pick the early front-runner 50% of the time and even then it's a current or former vice president (Gore, Mondale).

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Interesting to look back at the numbers. But it's daffy to extrapolate anything about 2008 from a 16-year-old poll where the frontrunner never entered the race (Cuomo), 20-year-old and 36-year-old polls where the frontrunner self-destructed (Hart, Muskie), or a 32-year-old poll where one frontrunner was in a wheelchair and had his health questioned, and the other never ran (Wallace, Kennedy).

If the premise is "stuff happens," we didn't need old straw polls to prove that one. Is there some governor lying in the weeds we don't know about who will knock off Hillary AND Barack? They're both already in, they're both healthy, and if one self-destructs, the other automatically becomes the lone frontrunner.

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Anonymous said...

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