A quick recovery? - Lorie Byrd of Polipundit lists a series of predictions from reader “Oak Leaf” who is an active duty reservist rounding out almost two weeks in New Orleans. He paints a somewhat more optimistic picture than what the media has presented. Be sure to check it out.
Follow up – “Oak Leaf” predicted: “1. Mayor Ray Nagin (D) estimated that fatalities would be as high as 10,000. While it is conceivable that area wide fatalities could in theory approach 3,000, I strongly believe that fatalities in NOLA, directly attributed to Katrina will be less than one thousand, (1,000).”
From this evening’s NYT web page: “Initial Search Finds Far Fewer Bodies Than Expected in New Orleans”
4 comments:
I especially like this one:
'7. Ninety percent, or more, of the residents that were displaced in NOLA will eventually return to the city in search of the now greatly expanded employment prospects in construction. However, the small percentage that does not return will change Louisiana politics permanently. Louisiana will join the rest of the “South” as a solid Republican State.'
When I first heard that 10,000 death estimate, I wondered how it was derived. The press did not ask to my knowledge and it sounded to me like a number pulled out of thin air. My first suspicion appears to be correct.
Yes, yes, Tom (and Oak Leaf). That 10% of theoretical non-returnees, the ones with no assets and no prospects, have always been THE most reliable voting bloc in the country. They're largely disconnected from society 364 days a year, but boy oh boy, they just can't WAIT to vote. Just think of the number of elections that have decided by that demographic. Removing them will change EVERYTHING.
I prefer this prediction:
[i]9. A large sea lizard with terrible red eyes will emerge from the New Orleans muck and devour Howard Dean, Hillary Clinton, Michael Moore, Cindy Sheehan, Kanye West, and anybody else we don't like. It's gonna be so awesome.[/i]
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