Sopranos Realpolitik: Iraq is Ralph Cifaretto

I think I've formulated the perfect analogy for Iraq. Iraq is Ralph. Fans of the show "The Sopranos" know that Ralph is a morally-stunted creep. He kills a stripper in one episode and (allegedly) destroys his horse to collect the insurance in another. He invites the wrath of Johnny Sack when he makes a fat joke about his wife. He berates everyone under him, belittles everyone at his level, and doesn't show Tony the proper respect demanded from a mob boss. It's pretty clear he's skimming off the top and making other backdoor deals. Everyone wants him knocked down a peg; Tony and Johnny both want him dead.

But over and over, whenever that scenario is contemplated, the same rationale comes up for keeping Ralph around: "He's a good earner."

That's right, Ralphie, despite his faults, brings in the fat envelopes stuffed with dead presidents. He keeps everyone in suits and mistresses and Italian meals at Arties. He's a good earner.

Now, on the cusp of war with Iraq, the United States is forced to restate what should be abundantly obvious: Ralphie…I mean Iraq…has violated the terms of U.N. Resolution 1441, which stated that any violation of any part of the resolution (including non-compliance) would bring about "serious consequences." France, Germany, and Russia seem to believe that those consequences mean another resolution and more inspectors. But what is their interest? Iraq is a good earner.

France's oil giant TotalFinaElf has huge development contracts with Iraq that they want to see honored, one way or another. Russia has $40 billion worth of oil contracts with Iraq. Iraq's Dec. 7th declaration indicated that German firms made up a large portion of the suppliers for Saddam Hussein's development of weapons of mass destruction. The United Nations doesn't want regime change in Iraq because the U.N. collects millions of dollars in administrative costs by running the "Oil for Food" program. Everybody's getting fat envelopes from Saddam Hussein.

If Tony Soprano is the United States, Saddam Hussein will meet the same fate as Ralphie. The cash won't roll in like before, but we'll all be a little richer to have lost him.