Thursday, June 05, 2008

It's going to be a nailbiter

MSNBC's First Read makes an early estimation of an electoral vote breakdown and (suspiciously) finds it a 200-200 count with 138 toss-ups.

Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (153 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: ME, NJ, MN, OR, WA (47 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA, WI (138 votes)
Lean McCain: AR, GA, IN, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NC, ND (84 votes)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, KS, KY, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (116 votes)

I think this is the first indication that the 2008 election is going to be the absolute worst in terms of media bias for the Obama-messiah. Florida is merely a "toss-up"? Virginia, too? Georgia is only a "lean" state for McCain? Give me a break. To be fair, I think Pennsylvania will go to Obama, but by the same coin I think a traditionally Republican state like Ohio will go to McCain.

For future reference, bookmark Election Projection for the most comprehensive (and honest) estimation of the state-by-state contests.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ohio:
2004: Bush 50.8% (+2)
2000: Bush 49.97% (+3.5)
1996: Clinton 47.4% (+6)
1992: Clinton 40.2% (+2)
1988: Bush 55% (+11)
1984: Reagan 58.9% (+19)
1980: Reagan 51.5% (+10)
1976: Carter 48.9% (+0.3)
1972: Nixon 59.6% (+22)
1968: Nixon 45.2% (+2)
1964: Johnson 62.9% (+26)
1960: Nixon 53.3% (+6.5)

Maybe you can look at those numbers and see "a traditionally Republican state," but you'll have to teach that trick to us.

Ohio's Presidential voting history looks a lot more like a trend state's, and that dynamic won't afflict the Dems this year.

The GOP standard-bearer has hovered at 50% during a period of relative electoral dominance. McCain might win Ohio, but not because it's red country.

Anonymous said...

Election Projection, which you tout as honest, counts Florida, Virginia and Ohio as tossups, the identical result you call "media bias" when MSNBC says it.

Election Projection does list Georgia as Solid McCain, but it also has Pennsylvania as Leans Obama. Betcha the Dems will sign up for that tradeoff right now.

Anonymous said...

MA rejected Dukakis and Kerry. I dont think my homestate will go for obambi.