Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Master prognosticator

I have not come here to question this man's prediction of Obama's re-election. Rather, I'm going to laugh and point at his first foray into the crystal ball:
Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.
In other news, Prof. Lichtman took the Harlem Globetrotters over the Washington Generals by three-and-a-half.

Extra - From Hot Air and Ace.


She Blinded Me With Since said...

You've misread the meaning of "since."

Lichtman came up with his formula in 1981. In other words, beginning with Reagan's reelection, and continuing ever since, his system has gotten all of the results correct.

Eric said...

Oh, I see. Like no President SINCE World War II has won re-election with an unemployment rate over 6%.

Well, except for Reagan in 1984 when the rate was 7.2%. Damn you, Minnesota!

She Blinded Me With Since said...

Ah, so the complaint is "this dumb jerk says Obama will win."

Lichtman's model called Reagan over Mondale - not on Halloween 1984, but during the '83 midterm recession, when Reagan's approval numbers were lower than Obama's are now.

His model called Bush Senior a slam dunk when Dukakis was up 15% in the polls. Conversely, it said Bush Senior was positioned to lose when he had a record 91% post-Desert Storm approval rating.

There's a lot of subjectivity in some of Lichtman's "keys," but he's no Democratic cheerleader, nor a Monday morning quarterback. He's a Friday afternoon 18 months before the game quarterback.