Here's Frank Foer on Hillary's "Parking Lot Obstacle" in Iowa:
But Hillary has a much bigger problem on her hands. When you caucus, you don't just dump a secret ballot into a slot. Caucuses are social events and individual decisions on caucus night are shaped by social pressures. Gephardt veterans like to describe how their 2004 free fall occurred in the moments between the time that caucus-goers parked their cars and sat down to do the evening's business. That's when they encountered the enthusiasm for Kerry and Edwards with their own eyes; they grew ashamed to cast their votes for someone so seemingly fusty as Gephardt. Sticking with Gephardt became an act of social courage that stunningly few made--at least relative to his stronger pre-caucus poll numbers.Well, I'm sure Hillary's charisma and likability will carry the day. The question here is the depth of Hillary's support in Iowa which seems (to me) as fleeting as Howard Dean's in 2004. On the eve of that caucus, I tracked some other bloggers' predictions and only one picked Kerry over the favorite Dean. Who knows what the children of the corn will do in three weeks?
Clearly, Obama is shrouded in an excitement that Hillary can't match at present. So, how will Hillary's soft supporters respond when confronted with this excitement on caucus night? Will they hold firm to their commitment to Hillary in the face of this enthusiasm? Or will they decide to give into Obama as they make their way from the parking lot. Hillary is hardly doomed to a Gephardt-like crumble on caucus night. Enthusiasm for Obama could wane between now and January 3rd. And she could solidify her support. But if I were her people, I'd be worried about such a doomsday scenario.
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Big winners of the Iowa caucuses have included Tom Harkin, Richard Gephardt, and Mo Udall, with Paul Simon, Steve Forbes, Pat Buchanan, and Pat Robertson all coming close.
Big winners of the New Hampshire primaries include John McCain, Pat Buchanan, Paul Tsongas, Gary Hart, Edmund Muskie, Henry Cabot Lodge, Estes Kefauver (twice), and Harold Stassen.
Thus, who cares?
The last presumptive Democratic standard bearer to lose the nomination was Gary Hart in 1988, and before that, Muskie. The last inevitable Republican to lose his perch was - arguably - Henry Cabot Lodge in '64. Robert Taft might be the real answer.
Forget the "influential" results of these dinky dog-and-pony shows. It's been three hours since the last poll; don't we have a brand new one to attach disproportionate significance to?
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