With apologies to Bill Kristol and Jules Crittenden, I just don't see how they expect Americans to put up with the war in Iraq with reports like this:
A progress report on Iraq will conclude that the U.S.-backed government in Baghdad has not met any of its targets for political, economic and other reform, speeding up the Bush administration's reckoning on what to do next, a U.S. official said.Six months ago, I said it was time to "sink or swim" in Iraq and that much is still true. With all our economic, military and political power, we can't force Iraq into the 21st century.
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If the Iraqi government doesn't wake up and smell the coffee really soon, they will be in a world of hurt. Of course, THEY will be the ones who will leave with much cash. The little people will suffer.
Don’t concern yourself with apologizing to Bill Kristol. Kristol should be apologizing to everyone who listened to his neoconservative drivel. In his article he frets about the potential of a ‘moral victory’ by Al Qaeda in Iraq. This potential did not exist until America took his advice, occupied the place, and provided Al Qaeda with a new battlefield and new human resources. Saddam was an evil, murderous son of a bitch, and an enemy of the USA; but he was no friend of Al Qaeda.
In Iraq we have allowed the enemy to define the field of battle. We are using a conventional force to engage an opponent who uses asymmetric tactics specifically designed to give the advantage to the guerrilla and take it away from the conventional force. We have given them a tactical advantage that they will continue to have until we leave that field of battle. It took decades to achieve a shaky peace in Northern Ireland. The conflict in Iraq is orders of magnitude worse on multiple levels: size of population, level of violence, geographic area, etc. Can anyone really say when this will end?
If we leave, Iraq will be a mess. If we stay, Iraq will be a mess. Our presence or absence will not be the thing that changes the situation. It will get better when Muslims decide they will not tolerate violence in the name of their religion and begin cooperating with law enforcement and intelligence services to root this cancer out of their mosques and communities. This is as true in Iraq as it is in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, the UK, Spain, the USA and everywhere else.
If we leave, Iraq will be a massacre far beyond anything since Cambodia. Then it will become a client state of Iran and Syria. Turkey would probably occupy Northern Iraq and the Kurds brutally suppressed.
Other than that, it sounds like a great idea.
The concern about Iraq coming under the influence if not outright control of neighboring powers is legitimate. It is already starting to happen despite the presence of our troops.
Maintaining the status quo means America is stuck in a proxy war against countries like Iran and Syria when we are not willing to engage them head-to-head. History is not on our side in that scenario. Proxy warfare was used successfully by the by the USA against the Russians in Afghanistan, and by the Russians and Chinese against America in Viet Nam. The irrefutable fact that our armed forces are the best in the world does not overcome the tactical realities of guerilla warfare and terrorism.
If the fear of a bloody civil war in Iraq keeps America there then we will be there forever. Outsiders are ineffective at stopping sectarian bloodshed. Lebanon, Northern Ireland, Haiti, Palestinian territories, Rwanda, Cambodia, etc., are all examples. We are not stopping it in Iraq now.
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