The requisite Viking Pundit midterm election predictions post
It wasn’t supposed to be like this.
After all, the economy has been going like gangbusters with strong growth, a record stock market, and near-full employment. On Iraq even the New York Times admits: “Experts say that at the time, Mr. Hussein’s scientists were on the verge of building an atom bomb, as little as a year away.” Meanwhile, the Butcher of Baghdad has been sentenced to death by an Iraqi court for his hand in the Dujail massacre. And – miraculously – the United States hasn’t suffered another terrorist attack in the five years since 9/11.
When the post-mortems of the 2006 elections are written, I believe there’s going to be one undercurrent to all the analyses: oversight. The Republican-led Congress simply didn’t provide oversight on Iraq, spending, and the indiscretions of its own members (e.g. Jefferson and Foley). I think this opened the door for the Democrats to make the “checks and balance” argument and the case for divided government. Thus, it didn’t matter that the Democrats are unable to articulate a position on any issue; the conditions were ripe for a referendum election and that’s what we’re going to get tomorrow.
So, while I appreciate the naive optimism by some on the Right side of the blogosphere, there is simply no hope for the House of Representatives. The Democrats will easily pick up twenty seats and I’ll make my official prediction of +24 to bring the House to 227 Democrats and 208 Republicans.
I’m much more concerned about the Senate, from which all judicial nominations flow. My straightforward analysis is that – except for Ohio – Republicans will win in Red states and Democrats will win in Blue states. Here’s the breakdown of the tight races:
Virginia – Allen squeaks by Webb – GOP retains
Ohio – Brown wins handily over DeWine – Dem pickup
Connecticut – Lieberman beats forklift driver Lamont – Dem retains
Maryland – Steele can’t overcome the overwhelming Democratic base here. Cardin wins - Dem retains
New Jersey – Ditto for Tom Kean Jr. and the base. Future felon Bob Menendez wins in the Soprano state. Sharpe James takes a flight to Brazil to celebrate. – Dem retains
Michigan – Stabenow crushes Bouchard – Dem retains
Missouri – Incumbent Jim Talent wins in the Bellwether state over McCaskill – GOP retains
Pennsylvania – Sorry, National Review. Casey beats Santorum. – Dem pickup
Tennessee – Corker defeats the party crasher Ford. – GOP retains
Arizona – Despite a surge by Pederson, Jon Kyl wins easily – GOP retains
Minnesota – No contest: Klobuchar over the Republican (!) Kennedy – Dem retains
Rhode Island – Whitehouse edges out a hobbled Chafee – Dem pickup
Montana – Burns surges to beat back Tester. Call it the Kurse of the Kos Kidz. – GOP retains
So that’s a +3 pickup for the Democrats bringing the Senate to 52 Republican seats to 48 Democratic seats.
Those are my predictions on this day, November 6th. Discuss amongst yourselves. More to come.
5 comments:
Heather Wilson defeats Patsy Madrid in New Mexico Congressional District 1; Steele, Santorum, and Burns all win.
Cardin wins in MD while almost every african american leader in MD endorses and supports Steele?
Stabenow wins in MI with an approval rate in the low 40s and the state in free fall?
Casey probably pulls out PA but 2 new polls have Santorum within 5 and Rendell is supporting Santorum.
Dewine's numbers have improved over the past week and Brown was campaigning with Pelosi - bad move in Ohio.
Menendez probably wins in NJ, sealing that state as the most useless, and he only serves a few more months before being indicted.
Overall I'm expecting -2 GOP for Senate but am beginning to expect it better. For house GOP -10 and retain control - there isn't a Dem wave and therefore will mostly reelect their sitting congresspeople.
Forgot to note - as a fellow MA person it will depressing watching Healey lose to the empty suit Deval. If I could move I would.
What? Move away from Massachusetts?
Cowards cut and run, Marines never do.
After all, the economy has been going like gangbusters with strong growth, a record stock market, and near-full employment. On Iraq even the New York Times admits: “Experts say that at the time, Mr. Hussein’s scientists were on the verge of building an atom bomb, as little as a year away.” Meanwhile, the Butcher of Baghdad has been sentenced to death by an Iraqi court for his hand in the Dujail massacre. And – miraculously – the United States hasn’t suffered another terrorist attack in the five years since 9/11.
1. No economy where wages are stagnant, jobs are moving overseas forever, the unemployment numbers are regularly cooked downwards, the deficit is the largest ever, government spending is torrential, housing sales are plummeting, the Social Security fund is untenable, and our childrens' future is an IOU in China's pocket is "going like gangbusters." But as you note, Charles Schwab is eating better than ever, so it's all good.
2. The reckless "power of the blogosphere" document dump is another lead weight for a drowning administration. But rightwing parrots have seized on that one sentence, out of a devastating article, in a Hail Mary attempt to retro-justify the foolhardy process (as well as the war itself). P.S. "At the time" refers to 1991. P.P.S. George Bush #1 took the experts so seriously that he left Hussein and his 1992 atom bomb in power. P.P.P.S. It never happened... unless Saddam's now-14-year-old nuke is also one of those thousands of WMDs that snuck over "to Syria."
3. Give him any scary nickname you like, but Americans have come to understand that Saddam Hussein was irrelevant in terms of the September 11th tragedy: the ostensible reason we went after him. Clone Saddam and hang him 2,900 times over, and you still haven't done a thing to avenge 9/11. And the "miracle" of no followup attacks has become more and more prosaic, as the limitations of the "worldwide terrorist network" have shown up. And besides, al-Qaeda gets to eat takeout now. Why fly all the way here to kill almost 3,000 Americans when you can just hide out in Iraq and murder the same amount?
Even if the "no further attacks because of us" meme were true, the boys who confiscate baby formula and nailclippers while quietly continuing to try and bring you Dubai Port Security don't deserve very much praise.
Beyond your first paragraph, I agree with you about the oversight issue, but don't ignore basic competence. From Katrina to Iraq to cronyism, it's central to understanding the Bush failure.
I'm assuming you're not suggesting that "checks and balances" is just a Democratic argument that's playing well this cycle. It could have been accomplished by the GOP without ceding power, if they'd taken their balls out of cold storage. If Congress had done its normal job these past 5 years, the White House would have gotten less of what it wanted. But the Bush Presidency wouldn't lie in ruins, either.
Post a Comment