Florida 2000 part 2 – The Allen-Webb race in Virginia is separated by 5,000 votes out of 2,200,000 cast with 97% reporting. This is going to recount.
Unbelievable – With 99% reporting, Allen is up by 1,800 votes with 2,270,000 votes cast in Virginia. This means that control of the Senate is heading to the courts. (Midnight EST update)
Update - Now it's Webb up by 1,800 votes with 99.3% reporting. This is nuts.
More - Judge Napolitano correctly notes that recounts rarely overturn results. Boo. I say boo.
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Thoroughly depressing - Fox News announces that the Democrats have now taken control of the House of Representatives.
Interesting political trivia: according to various sources, when the House has changed control the Senate has always followed along. So far it's looking like this year will be the exception to the rule.
Interesting political trivia: according to various sources, when the House has changed control the Senate has always followed along. So far it's looking like this year will be the exception to the rule.
Eleven p.m. EST Senate update – Allen continues to lead by a whisker in Virginia. Meanwhile, Talent is up by 8% over McCaskill in Missouri with 35% reporting and Corker is up by 5% with 71% reporting in Tennessee.
So…not only does the Senate look safe for the GOP but as things stand, all of my Senate predictions were exactly correct. Bow down to the all-knowing Viking Pundit!
Wait, wait…Fox News just reported that neither St. Louis or Kansas City precincts have reported in Missouri. What’s up with that? Hang tight.
So…not only does the Senate look safe for the GOP but as things stand, all of my Senate predictions were exactly correct. Bow down to the all-knowing Viking Pundit!
Wait, wait…Fox News just reported that neither St. Louis or Kansas City precincts have reported in Missouri. What’s up with that? Hang tight.
Tradesports political market – The regular site is overloaded but check out the updates on the left margin of Poor & Stupid. House GOP retention is down to 5%, but Senate GOP retention is holding at 71%. (10:10pm EST)
Update - Ten minutes later, the GOP Senate future is up to 81% because it looks like Allen is going to pull it out in Virginia. With 92% of the vote in, he's up by 20,000 votes or 1%.
Update - Ten minutes later, the GOP Senate future is up to 81% because it looks like Allen is going to pull it out in Virginia. With 92% of the vote in, he's up by 20,000 votes or 1%.
Maryland – Fox calls it for Ben Cardin over Michael Steele. No response from Maryland blogger Dave Wissing yet.
Nutmeg State – With only 4% of precincts reporting, CNN is calling Connecticut for Joe Lieberman. Sadly, this might be the high point of the night. (9:22 EST)
Frankenberry is kicking his ass – If Indiana-2 is a harbinger of tonight’s results, it’s going to be a bloodbath. With a third of the precincts reporting, Chris Chocola is down 59%-41% against Joe Donnelly. (Link via Sister Toldjah who is following events).
Nailbiter in Virginia – With 5% reporting, Allen and Webb are separated by 0.1%.
Update at 9pm: Allen up by 2% with 72% of the precincts reporting. According to the Corner, Chuck Schumer says that Northern VA hasn't been counted yet.
OMG - 81% in, the separation is 0.5% (9:30pm)
Update at 9pm: Allen up by 2% with 72% of the precincts reporting. According to the Corner, Chuck Schumer says that Northern VA hasn't been counted yet.
OMG - 81% in, the separation is 0.5% (9:30pm)
Didn't see that coming - Britney files for divorce from K-Fed. Men across America silently mutter: "Now there's an opening for me."
I voted
There was a moderate backup at the polls today so I had to spend gasoline and my precious time to vote tonight. Isn't this exactly like a poll tax? Nevermind.
Mom, who lives in New York, had little reason to go to the polls today but said she went "just so she could vote against Hillary." Good ole Mom.
There was a moderate backup at the polls today so I had to spend gasoline and my precious time to vote tonight. Isn't this exactly like a poll tax? Nevermind.
Mom, who lives in New York, had little reason to go to the polls today but said she went "just so she could vote against Hillary." Good ole Mom.
The final update – Scott Elliott has tallied up the numbers over at Election Projection. His strict accounting predicts +25 in the House and +5 in the Senate but his disclaimer reads: “So here is The Blogging Caesar's official position on these mid-term elections. I predict the GOP will lose a net 11 seats in the House and a net 3 seats in the Senate. At most, I say the GOP loses 18 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate. That's where I stand."
Monday, November 06, 2006
It's going to be a long night - I'm charging up the cell phone, opening a bottle of wine, and staying up late tomorrow night. Coverage begins about five minutes after I get home from work.
To recap: I'm predicting +24 for the Democrats in the House and +3 in the Senate.
The Massachusetts races are almost too depressing to review. Deval Patrick will be the next governor, Drunk Ted will be re-elected, as will my useless Representative John Olver. The only bright spot is Question #1 which will (likely) allow for the sale of wine in supermarkets. This is the best I can hope for in the Bay State. Sigh.
To recap: I'm predicting +24 for the Democrats in the House and +3 in the Senate.
The Massachusetts races are almost too depressing to review. Deval Patrick will be the next governor, Drunk Ted will be re-elected, as will my useless Representative John Olver. The only bright spot is Question #1 which will (likely) allow for the sale of wine in supermarkets. This is the best I can hope for in the Bay State. Sigh.
Dick Cheney will be busy – Bulldog Pundit sees the Senate in a 50-50 split.
More - Mark says +19/+4 for the Dems and AJ says only +12 in the House.
More - Mark says +19/+4 for the Dems and AJ says only +12 in the House.
More picks - National Review’s John J. Miller has Senate picks nearly identical to my own with the exception of Montana. It’s a close race in Big Sky country.
Evans and Novak on the Show Me state Senate race
The ancient Washington insiders are predicting a pickup of 19 seats in the House and just two (2) seats in the Senate for the Democrats. Read this extensive analysis for all the details. This breakdown of the Talent-McCaskill race in Missouri is worth a glance:
The ancient Washington insiders are predicting a pickup of 19 seats in the House and just two (2) seats in the Senate for the Democrats. Read this extensive analysis for all the details. This breakdown of the Talent-McCaskill race in Missouri is worth a glance:
The x-factor, which we believe will cut decisively in Talent's favor, is Amendment 2, the cloning and stem-cell amendment on the ballot. Whether it succeeds or fails, the balloting on Amendment 2 will be very close, and its opponents are much more motivated to vote than its supporters. More people may vote for it, but few will go out specifically to vote for it. Its presence on the ballot can only help Talent in a race that promises to come down to a few thousand votes. Leaning Republican Retention.They also note that Talent’s get-out-the-vote campaign started ahead of McCaskill’s and it’s better organized.
The requisite Viking Pundit midterm election predictions post
It wasn’t supposed to be like this.
After all, the economy has been going like gangbusters with strong growth, a record stock market, and near-full employment. On Iraq even the New York Times admits: “Experts say that at the time, Mr. Hussein’s scientists were on the verge of building an atom bomb, as little as a year away.” Meanwhile, the Butcher of Baghdad has been sentenced to death by an Iraqi court for his hand in the Dujail massacre. And – miraculously – the United States hasn’t suffered another terrorist attack in the five years since 9/11.
When the post-mortems of the 2006 elections are written, I believe there’s going to be one undercurrent to all the analyses: oversight. The Republican-led Congress simply didn’t provide oversight on Iraq, spending, and the indiscretions of its own members (e.g. Jefferson and Foley). I think this opened the door for the Democrats to make the “checks and balance” argument and the case for divided government. Thus, it didn’t matter that the Democrats are unable to articulate a position on any issue; the conditions were ripe for a referendum election and that’s what we’re going to get tomorrow.
So, while I appreciate the naive optimism by some on the Right side of the blogosphere, there is simply no hope for the House of Representatives. The Democrats will easily pick up twenty seats and I’ll make my official prediction of +24 to bring the House to 227 Democrats and 208 Republicans.
I’m much more concerned about the Senate, from which all judicial nominations flow. My straightforward analysis is that – except for Ohio – Republicans will win in Red states and Democrats will win in Blue states. Here’s the breakdown of the tight races:
Virginia – Allen squeaks by Webb – GOP retains
Ohio – Brown wins handily over DeWine – Dem pickup
Connecticut – Lieberman beats forklift driver Lamont – Dem retains
Maryland – Steele can’t overcome the overwhelming Democratic base here. Cardin wins - Dem retains
New Jersey – Ditto for Tom Kean Jr. and the base. Future felon Bob Menendez wins in the Soprano state. Sharpe James takes a flight to Brazil to celebrate. – Dem retains
Michigan – Stabenow crushes Bouchard – Dem retains
Missouri – Incumbent Jim Talent wins in the Bellwether state over McCaskill – GOP retains
Pennsylvania – Sorry, National Review. Casey beats Santorum. – Dem pickup
Tennessee – Corker defeats the party crasher Ford. – GOP retains
Arizona – Despite a surge by Pederson, Jon Kyl wins easily – GOP retains
Minnesota – No contest: Klobuchar over the Republican (!) Kennedy – Dem retains
Rhode Island – Whitehouse edges out a hobbled Chafee – Dem pickup
Montana – Burns surges to beat back Tester. Call it the Kurse of the Kos Kidz. – GOP retains
So that’s a +3 pickup for the Democrats bringing the Senate to 52 Republican seats to 48 Democratic seats.
Those are my predictions on this day, November 6th. Discuss amongst yourselves. More to come.
It wasn’t supposed to be like this.
After all, the economy has been going like gangbusters with strong growth, a record stock market, and near-full employment. On Iraq even the New York Times admits: “Experts say that at the time, Mr. Hussein’s scientists were on the verge of building an atom bomb, as little as a year away.” Meanwhile, the Butcher of Baghdad has been sentenced to death by an Iraqi court for his hand in the Dujail massacre. And – miraculously – the United States hasn’t suffered another terrorist attack in the five years since 9/11.
When the post-mortems of the 2006 elections are written, I believe there’s going to be one undercurrent to all the analyses: oversight. The Republican-led Congress simply didn’t provide oversight on Iraq, spending, and the indiscretions of its own members (e.g. Jefferson and Foley). I think this opened the door for the Democrats to make the “checks and balance” argument and the case for divided government. Thus, it didn’t matter that the Democrats are unable to articulate a position on any issue; the conditions were ripe for a referendum election and that’s what we’re going to get tomorrow.
So, while I appreciate the naive optimism by some on the Right side of the blogosphere, there is simply no hope for the House of Representatives. The Democrats will easily pick up twenty seats and I’ll make my official prediction of +24 to bring the House to 227 Democrats and 208 Republicans.
I’m much more concerned about the Senate, from which all judicial nominations flow. My straightforward analysis is that – except for Ohio – Republicans will win in Red states and Democrats will win in Blue states. Here’s the breakdown of the tight races:
Virginia – Allen squeaks by Webb – GOP retains
Ohio – Brown wins handily over DeWine – Dem pickup
Connecticut – Lieberman beats forklift driver Lamont – Dem retains
Maryland – Steele can’t overcome the overwhelming Democratic base here. Cardin wins - Dem retains
New Jersey – Ditto for Tom Kean Jr. and the base. Future felon Bob Menendez wins in the Soprano state. Sharpe James takes a flight to Brazil to celebrate. – Dem retains
Michigan – Stabenow crushes Bouchard – Dem retains
Missouri – Incumbent Jim Talent wins in the Bellwether state over McCaskill – GOP retains
Pennsylvania – Sorry, National Review. Casey beats Santorum. – Dem pickup
Tennessee – Corker defeats the party crasher Ford. – GOP retains
Arizona – Despite a surge by Pederson, Jon Kyl wins easily – GOP retains
Minnesota – No contest: Klobuchar over the Republican (!) Kennedy – Dem retains
Rhode Island – Whitehouse edges out a hobbled Chafee – Dem pickup
Montana – Burns surges to beat back Tester. Call it the Kurse of the Kos Kidz. – GOP retains
So that’s a +3 pickup for the Democrats bringing the Senate to 52 Republican seats to 48 Democratic seats.
Those are my predictions on this day, November 6th. Discuss amongst yourselves. More to come.
Meanwhile in New Jersey – I don’t know nothin’ about no federal investigation: “U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez (D- N.J.) has repeatedly denied he is being investigated by federal prosecutors, but yesterday his campaign staff confirmed that a prominent criminal defense lawyer is representing him in an inquiry into a rental property he once owned.”
Down to the wire
From Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball:
From Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball:
Yet something is happening. Both the Washington Post/ABC News poll and the new Pew survey show a dramatic tightening of the generic ballot vote, with Democrats leading by 4 to 6 percent. If these polls are accurate, this is bad news for Democrats, and they suggest that Democratic gains might be more limited than have been widely expected. Perhaps the Republican vote is finally coming home--much later than usual. President Bush's campaigning in red territory and the GOP's smart get-out-the-vote operation may be working at last. We will know tomorrow night. [Emphasis in original]Still, despite all that putative momentum, Sabato predicts the Senate will barely go to the Democrats 51-49, thanks to George Allen’s inept campaign.
Sunday, November 05, 2006
Amazing Race 10 update – Off the African coast
Teams start out from Mauritius and head to Madagascar. It’s revealed that the teams are starting out with only $10 for this leg of the race. Team Ergo continues to wait around for the “Six Pack” to keep their alliance with Teams Alabama and 16 Tons. It’s 3 a.m. at night so this is a bunching situation since the first flight leaves at 11 a.m. the following morning. In Madagascar, all the teams need to find the “Black Angel” for the next clue.
At the clue box, a new twist on the Race is revealed: the Intersection. Teams must pair up and perform all remaining tasks until further notice – so essentially, the competition goes from six teams to three. There’s also a Fast Forward which, if chosen, must be performed by the merged teams. Team Bicker and Team Rehab arrive first, immediately pair up, and head to the Fast Forward. They must find a restaurant and everybody must eat a plate full of cow lips. You heard me: cow lips.
The Blondies arrive next but they must wait for another team to arrive before they can go on. The remaining three teams arrive in quick succession and Team Blonde immediately latches onto the strongest team of Erwin & Godwin. This leaves the Southern teams together to figure out the Detour: Long Sleep or Short Letter. Teams may either deliver a bunch of foam mattresses or made decorative paper from hand-made pulp. The two merged teams go for the Long Sleep while the Team Rehab-Bicker alliance struggles with the disgusting hair-and-teeth filled cow lips.
Team Alabama/16 Tons actually comes up with a seemingly good idea: they lash their mattresses together with the straps from their fanny packs. This is better in theory than practice since eight foam mattresses make for an unwieldy burden. Mary makes her typical contribution of screaming constantly. Team Ergo-Blondie finish first and then are split back up into separate teams.
Team Blondie gets to the Roadblock first: one team member must collect some rubber stamps matching patterns. Team Ergo’s taxi runs out of gas. The Fast Forward teams are still eating while the Southern Alliance finally finishes their Detour. Kimberly is stating to look like she won’t be able to finish the cow lips; maybe the Fast Forward wasn’t so fast. It seems like they’re spending a lot of time rationalizing why the Fast Forward was the better choice. (Foreshadowing, anyone?) Nah, it looks like they’re going to make it after all and they head to the Pit Stop at Andohalo Cathedral.
After completing the Roadblock, both Dustin’s and Godwin’s taxis run out of gas. Dustin re-fuels first and Team Blonde arrives at the Cathedral as Team #1 for the second week in a row (and beating the Fast Forward teams). Team 16 Tons finishes the Roadblock but they need to get there at least 30 minutes ahead of the last place team to make up for last week’s penalty.
Team Alabama finishes their Roadblock but their taxi runs out of gas! Nevertheless, they arrive at the Pit Stop with plenty of time to spare and David & Mary are eliminated. It’s a tearful farewell as the Southern teams had formed a bond. David hands off his University of Kentucky baseball cap to continue on with Team Alabama.
Final standings:
#1 - Team Blonde – Dustin & Kandace – Prize: Travelocity trip
#2 - Team Rehab – Tyler & James – Fast Forward
#3 - Team Bicker – Rob & Kimberly – Fast Forward
#4 - Team Ergo – Erwin & Godwin
#5 - Team Alabama – Lyn & Karlyn
#6 - Team 16 Tons – David & Mary - PHILIMINATED
Next week: Into the big muddy.
Extra – This space reserved for recaps from Pat and Kris.
Teams start out from Mauritius and head to Madagascar. It’s revealed that the teams are starting out with only $10 for this leg of the race. Team Ergo continues to wait around for the “Six Pack” to keep their alliance with Teams Alabama and 16 Tons. It’s 3 a.m. at night so this is a bunching situation since the first flight leaves at 11 a.m. the following morning. In Madagascar, all the teams need to find the “Black Angel” for the next clue.
At the clue box, a new twist on the Race is revealed: the Intersection. Teams must pair up and perform all remaining tasks until further notice – so essentially, the competition goes from six teams to three. There’s also a Fast Forward which, if chosen, must be performed by the merged teams. Team Bicker and Team Rehab arrive first, immediately pair up, and head to the Fast Forward. They must find a restaurant and everybody must eat a plate full of cow lips. You heard me: cow lips.
The Blondies arrive next but they must wait for another team to arrive before they can go on. The remaining three teams arrive in quick succession and Team Blonde immediately latches onto the strongest team of Erwin & Godwin. This leaves the Southern teams together to figure out the Detour: Long Sleep or Short Letter. Teams may either deliver a bunch of foam mattresses or made decorative paper from hand-made pulp. The two merged teams go for the Long Sleep while the Team Rehab-Bicker alliance struggles with the disgusting hair-and-teeth filled cow lips.
Team Alabama/16 Tons actually comes up with a seemingly good idea: they lash their mattresses together with the straps from their fanny packs. This is better in theory than practice since eight foam mattresses make for an unwieldy burden. Mary makes her typical contribution of screaming constantly. Team Ergo-Blondie finish first and then are split back up into separate teams.
Team Blondie gets to the Roadblock first: one team member must collect some rubber stamps matching patterns. Team Ergo’s taxi runs out of gas. The Fast Forward teams are still eating while the Southern Alliance finally finishes their Detour. Kimberly is stating to look like she won’t be able to finish the cow lips; maybe the Fast Forward wasn’t so fast. It seems like they’re spending a lot of time rationalizing why the Fast Forward was the better choice. (Foreshadowing, anyone?) Nah, it looks like they’re going to make it after all and they head to the Pit Stop at Andohalo Cathedral.
After completing the Roadblock, both Dustin’s and Godwin’s taxis run out of gas. Dustin re-fuels first and Team Blonde arrives at the Cathedral as Team #1 for the second week in a row (and beating the Fast Forward teams). Team 16 Tons finishes the Roadblock but they need to get there at least 30 minutes ahead of the last place team to make up for last week’s penalty.
Team Alabama finishes their Roadblock but their taxi runs out of gas! Nevertheless, they arrive at the Pit Stop with plenty of time to spare and David & Mary are eliminated. It’s a tearful farewell as the Southern teams had formed a bond. David hands off his University of Kentucky baseball cap to continue on with Team Alabama.
Final standings:
#1 - Team Blonde – Dustin & Kandace – Prize: Travelocity trip
#2 - Team Rehab – Tyler & James – Fast Forward
#3 - Team Bicker – Rob & Kimberly – Fast Forward
#4 - Team Ergo – Erwin & Godwin
#5 - Team Alabama – Lyn & Karlyn
#6 - Team 16 Tons – David & Mary - PHILIMINATED
Next week: Into the big muddy.
Extra – This space reserved for recaps from Pat and Kris.
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