Monday, October 18, 2010

The gray wave

I'm starting to believe the hype that this year will be bigger than 1994 and even the longshot GOP takeover of the Senate may be in reach. It's because, in my opinion, elections are always decided by three important (and overlapping) groups: women, independents, and elderly voters.

When it comes to the gender gap, a NY Times report indicates that men favor the generic Republican candidate by +13 while the gap for women is -7 (that is, they favor the Democrat by +7). But as the Times' title suggests: "Men are fuming, women are despairing," men are much more motivated to go out and vote so, as a minimum, the gender gap is a wash.

Among independent voters the GOP holds a single-point edge that extends into a +13% gap when these voters are moved into the "likely voter" column. And now, via Real Clear Politics, we can see the tide of older voters forming: "The Senior Wave: Older voters set for historic turnout"

The trend is strongest among voters age 65 and older. Eighty-four percent of seniors who are registered to vote say they will "definitely" vote. That's 9 percentage points above the previous record, 1994, when the question was first asked. Six in 10 seniors have given the election "a lot" of thought, also a peak. High enthusiasm and engagement generally signal high turnout.
So they're really going to vote. And who are they really going to vote for?

This year, by Rasmussen's measure, seniors favor electing a Republican in their district by a 18-point margin (53 to 35 percent); Republicans' advantage with all other age groups is in the single digits. Gallup tracks the same trend. Seniors who are following the election closely, an indicator of likely turnout, favor Republicans by an 11-point margin in the ABC/Post poll.
The cake is baked. Bribes aren't going to help. Slurpee jokes are done. "Speaker" Pelosi and "Senate Majority Leader" Reid will be no more.

The whirlwind is coming. Thanks, Grandma!

Extra - Politico: "In the eyes of the experts, the House Democratic majority most likely won’t survive Nov. 2, with political handicappers expanding their predictions to envision the possibility of a Democratic wipeout." Oh yeah.

More - This just in from Gallup: "GOP holds solid leads in voter preferences."

And this:

Put on a brave face, Gibbsy.


Bram said...

It's motivation. Conservatives are chomping at the bit to get to the polls. A lot of independents are going to vote against the Democrats as well.

Liberals have to be embarrassed. Without a Presidential election, many will find other things to do.

Onion said...

Democrats Could Lose Up To 8,000 Seats In Upcoming Midterm Election
OCTOBER 19, 2010

WASHINGTON—According to recent media reports, Democrats stand to lose as many as 8,000 congressional seats and more than 917 gubernatorial races in November's midterm elections. "Republicans are poised to pick up 1,500 seats in Ohio alone, and could wind up with a 23,576-to-12 majority in the Senate," Beltway observer Isaac Hundt said Wednesday, noting the GOP's advantage is likely to increase by Election Day given that its candidates are outspending their opponents by some $900 trillion. "With Democratic disapproval ratings in the quadruple digits, it's a foregone conclusion that Republicans will not only retake Congress, but hold it for the next 20,000 to 25,000 years." Experts also predicted the one-sided election results would cause Barack Obama to die on the spot, at which point the nation's leading conservative talk-radio host would be sworn in as president of the United States forever.