Thursday, September 02, 2010

52 pick-up

It's two months to Election Day and here come the predictions. Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics has an analysis titled "Bigger than 1994" with the 52-seat swing set as the floor for this midterm.

Larry Sabato and his crystal ball see a +47 for the GOP in the House, +8 in the Senate and +8 among the governor races. The Republicans need a 39-seat swing in the House to gain control and +10 in the Senate. Interesting trivia: since WWII, everytime the House has flipped, so has the Senate.

Jay Cost has left RCP to take on a new gig at the Weekly Standard. He looks at some individual races but also has a long lead-off on the GOP's generic ballot lead and uses the term "larger than 1994." There's that phrase again.

1 comment:

Bram said...

Dick Morris was pretty confident that the Senate will swing too. Amazing that they could burn through that huge a majority in two years.