The first election map - Marc Ambinder has the first Obama-McCain matchup projection and it's a slight lead for McCain right now: 245-221 with leaners.
6 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Here's the first Atlantic Election Map of the cycle based on interviews, reportage, polling and guesswork.
A couple problems: McCain smokes Obama in Florida, not even close.
McCain wins a lot more Hispanic votes than these "experts" want to admit because Hispanics don't want the black guy to win. The worst racism I I have seen in my life is between Hispanics and blacks. Many Hispanics see Obama as a guy who will put them down the entitlement and affirmative action pecking order. That is the unspoken problem with Obama's candidacy.
Also, Obama has no shot in Montana, Missouri, and Indiana. They are McCain states, not tilting McCain. We heard the same thing about Kerry having a shot in those states 4 years ago, and we know how that turned out.
Oh, yeah. The whole "Obama won't get certain votes because he's black" discussion, that's really been an unspoken, top-secret premise in this campaign. Finally someone had the balls to mention it.
As for the "Kerry didn't win 'em, so Obama can't either" theory, that baby's airtight. Especially in Missouri. Bush got 53% of the vote there in 2004, and 50% in 2000, so the Democrats might just as well write the state off.
Districts that had been blood-red GOP since the 1960s and 1970s have flipped. Those were districts where the Republicans were getting totals like 82% and 68% and 74%, too, not 53% or 50%.
It's going to be a wipeout. McCain is going to "smoke" Obama here and there the same way Dukakis ate Bush Sr.'s lunch in Iowa, Hawaii and Rhode Island.
Hey, "Bush isn't on the ballot." Even if that wishful talking point held any water, it's f'n HILARIOUS coming from the crowd that insists "9/11 was Clinton's fault."
Bush wasn't on the ballot in 2006, either. How'd that work out for ya?
Bush wasn't on the ballot for Mississippi's 1st district special election today, either. The House seat that just flipped Democratic. The district that Bush won with 63% in 2004. The district that's supported the Republican in 11 of the past 12 Presidential elections. The district where Rep. Roger Wicker was re-re-re-re-re-reelected with 66% of the vote 18 months ago. The district that the NRCC and the 527 groups just spent 2 million badly-needed dollars trying, and failing, to save.
6 comments:
Here's the first Atlantic Election Map of the cycle based on interviews, reportage, polling and guesswork.
What, no soothsaying chicken entrails available?
A couple problems: McCain smokes Obama in Florida, not even close.
McCain wins a lot more Hispanic votes than these "experts" want to admit because Hispanics don't want the black guy to win. The worst racism I I have seen in my life is between Hispanics and blacks. Many Hispanics see Obama as a guy who will put them down the entitlement and affirmative action pecking order. That is the unspoken problem with Obama's candidacy.
Also, Obama has no shot in Montana, Missouri, and Indiana. They are McCain states, not tilting McCain. We heard the same thing about Kerry having a shot in those states 4 years ago, and we know how that turned out.
Oh, yeah. The whole "Obama won't get certain votes because he's black" discussion, that's really been an unspoken, top-secret premise in this campaign. Finally someone had the balls to mention it.
As for the "Kerry didn't win 'em, so Obama can't either" theory, that baby's airtight. Especially in Missouri. Bush got 53% of the vote there in 2004, and 50% in 2000, so the Democrats might just as well write the state off.
Districts that had been blood-red GOP since the 1960s and 1970s have flipped. Those were districts where the Republicans were getting totals like 82% and 68% and 74%, too, not 53% or 50%.
It's going to be a wipeout. McCain is going to "smoke" Obama here and there the same way Dukakis ate Bush Sr.'s lunch in Iowa, Hawaii and Rhode Island.
Hey "Bush's approval rating in Missouri (April 25 poll): 30%,"
Bush isn't on the ballot.
Hey, "Bush isn't on the ballot." Even if that wishful talking point held any water, it's f'n HILARIOUS coming from the crowd that insists "9/11 was Clinton's fault."
Bush wasn't on the ballot in 2006, either. How'd that work out for ya?
Bush wasn't on the ballot for Mississippi's 1st district special election today, either. The House seat that just flipped Democratic. The district that Bush won with 63% in 2004. The district that's supported the Republican in 11 of the past 12 Presidential elections. The district where Rep. Roger Wicker was re-re-re-re-re-reelected with 66% of the vote 18 months ago. The district that the NRCC and the 527 groups just spent 2 million badly-needed dollars trying, and failing, to save.
Post a Comment