Wednesday, February 18, 2004

Is the soufflé about to collapse?

A couple days back, Viking Pundit presciently called John Kerry’s campaign “The Soufflé Candidacy.” Senator Splunge has been propped up by this aura of “electability” but the Wisconsin results may shake his support. Will Saletan has the numbers:

But the exit polls show that, by and large, Democrats aren't voting for Kerry because they prefer him on the issues. They're voting for him because they think he's the Democrat most likely to beat Bush. What happens if they find out he isn't? What happens if they realize that Edwards is doing as well as Kerry among independents and is doing better than Kerry among crossover Republicans?

And Mickey Kaus adds his analysis:

Doesn't Edwards' appeal to potential swing Republicans and Independents make him more, you know ... what's the word ... electable? Is it really good news for Kerry that he doesn't travel well beyond the base?

No, it isn’t! And John Ellis nails the issue:

What they [the Kerry people] dread most of all is negative momentum, because (let's face it) the candidate has no strong base of support within the party. They're only for him because he's winning. Once he starts losing, he's a loser.

I’m going to buck the conventional opinion and predict that Kerry will be facing a Wall Street-type selloff panic in the next couple of days. The Dems will be looking at those independent numbers, which broke 2-1 for Edwards in the final hours (thus completely surprising the pollsters). Then they’ll recall Senator Handsome is from the South. Then they’ll look at the latest Rasmussen poll numbers which indicate a sudden 6% shift in a Bush-Kerry matchup.

And then, Howard Dean drops out of the race and endorses John Edwards.

Although Dean is not a kingmaker, he can be the frontrunner-maker. By staying in through Super Tuesday, this anti-Warwick could ensure Kerry's nomination. By throwing his waning strength (and Web fund-raising) to Edwards, he could help transform a routine Boston coronation into a neck-and-neck race down the homestretch.

The next two weeks are going to be a bacchanal for pundits.

No comments: