Reason: "
The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%" - "
That rate is much lower than the numbers used in the horrifying projections that shaped the government response to the epidemic."
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans with COVID-19 symptoms is 0.4 percent. The CDC also estimates that 35 percent of people infected by the COVID-19 virus never develop symptoms. Those numbers imply that the virus kills less than 0.3 percent of people infected by it—far lower than the infection fatality rates (IFRs) assumed by the alarming projections that drove the initial government response to the epidemic, including broad business closure and stay-at-home orders.
Let's be honest: the coronavirus response has been a complete s--- show for the "
believe science!" narrative. The Surgeon General said
not to use masks, then he did. The CDC response has been a
mess. Andrew Cuomo darkly warned he needed 30,000 ventilators, didn't use the ones he had, and then shipped them to other states. The
predictive models have been less accurate than a monkey throwing darts. We've shut down our entire economy based on these models that -
oopsie! - are now showing to be an
order of magnitude away from reality:
Lockdown caused more deaths than it saved, a Nobel laureate scientist said on Saturday, as he predicted the UK would emerge from Covid-19 within weeks.
Michael Levitt, a Stanford University professor who correctly predicted the initial trajectory of the pandemic, sent messages to Professor Neil Ferguson in March telling the influential government advisor he had over-estimated the potential death toll by "10 or 12 times".
We may not question the Nobel Prize-winning scientist. Or
Greta Thunberg.
6 comments:
But "science!" has allowed nursing home serial killer and subway death-trap designer Andrew Cuomo to run rampant in New York, so there's that.
It's also allowed California to have a year's worth of suicides in the last 4 weeks.
I'm no mathematician but something tells me that when New York's fatality rate is 20 times higher than the rest of the country, they're doing something wrong.
Hmm! Being the nation's immigrant-heavy melting pot, running comprehensive 24-hour mass transit, being the most visited tourism spot in America and the continent's top travel hub for Europe, having more public housing than most places have housing, having the most influx and outflux of any city, with 9 of the country's top 10 most population-dense incorporated places being in New York or New Jersey... yeah, better call Blue's Clues to solve this mystery.
Calm down, neither Donald Trump nor Andrew Cuomo will ever be President after this year. Remember the beloved "America's Mayor"?
One other statistical wrinkle: New York reports its true fatality data, which not every state does.
Nothing about New York City's Outbreak was inevitable
"Being the nation's immigrant-heavy melting pot..."
...It’s not even the American city with the most immigrants [per capita, Miami is].
"running comprehensive 24-hour mass transit..."
The epidemic began in the city’s northern suburbs. The city’s per capita fatalities are identical to those in neighboring Nassau County, home of Levittown, a typical suburban county with a household income twice that of New York City.
"being the most visited tourism spot in America and the continent's top travel hub for Europe"
Unexceptional things about New York: international flights, immigrants, the fact that its residents live in apartment buildings, suffer from overcrowding as a result of high housing costs, and use public transit.
"having more public housing than most places have housing..."
True, New York City apartments are crowded. The share of housing units with more than one occupant per room is almost 10 percent. But that number is 13 percent in the city of Los Angeles. As a metro area, New York isn’t even in the top 15 U.S. cities for overcrowding. It’s not even the American city with the most apartments per capita (Miami)...
"having the most influx and outflux of any city, with 9 of the country's top 10 most population-dense incorporated places being in New York or New Jersey...
A cursory look at a map shows that New York City’s coronavirus cases aren’t correlated with neighborhood density at all. Staten Island, the city’s least crowded borough, has the highest positive test rate of the five boroughs. Manhattan, the city’s densest borough, has its lowest.
Care to bet $250 on that, douchebag?
Bill De Blasio, March 15th: "Hey everybody, visit your local bar!"
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