Lying or misfiring synapses? You make the call, America!
6 comments:
"Metrics"
said...
You make the call, America!
Oh, they already are.
Texas (Emerson): Trump by 3% Massachusetts (Emerson): Biden by 34%
In 2016, Trump won Texas by 9%, and Hillary won Massachusetts by 27%.
A 6% difference and a 7% difference. Such serendipity.
One week before the 2016 election, Emerson had Trump winning Texas by 14%, not 9%. In September 2016, Emerson found Clinton winning Massachusetts by 17%, not 27%. If Emerson's got a slight methodological bias that favors Republicans, their Trump 2020 numbers may be a bit inflated.
But when we're so far out from November, betting marke-- I mean, election polls are meaningless. Your post, however, is HUGE HUGE HUGE. Buckle in for the electoral earthquake when America demands to know exactly when Joe Biden knew about the Michael Flynn investigation in which Flynn pled guilty in court, twice.
No wait, Tara Reade AND Mike Flynn, no fair, you didn't tell me that.NOSEDIVE CITY!
Vanity Fair: Recent internal polls show Trump trailing Joe Biden in six swing states, a data point that augurs a landslide loss in November. “The swing state polls are horrific,” a prominent Republican briefed on the numbers told me. The White House’s COVID-19 outbreak is only the latest headline that reinforces the narrative that Trump can’t get control of the pandemic. “This is what should worry the campaign: Biden is in his basement and he’s beating Trump,” a former West Wing staffer told me. “If I were Biden, the lesson I would learn is: Shut the fuck up and let Trump go out there and destroy himself.”
...On top of everything, there is also fear in Trumpworld that Senate Republicans might finally break from him if the polls get bad enough. “The numbers are fucking terrible,” another former West Wing official said. “There’s massive anxiety in the GOP that he’s gonna take them all down with him.”
Election Eve, 2012: Official Viking Pundit prediction: Romney 285 - Obama 253 I'm absolutely exhausted today but I figured I owed it to my readers (both of them) to put it on the line before the polls open tomorrow. In addition to the 191 votes allocated by the RCP electoral map, I believe Romney/Ryan will get Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado.
Well, you killed that North Carolina prediction.
Election Eve, 2016: This is the only consolation I can find in this election Hit and Run: "This is the least important election of our lifetimes."
Right on cue: the Pennsylvania fantasy Or not, just like every election, once the results from Philadelphia and Pittsburgh come in. Reminder to self: pick up wine.
6 comments:
You make the call, America!
Oh, they already are.
Texas (Emerson): Trump by 3%
Massachusetts (Emerson): Biden by 34%
In 2016, Trump won Texas by 9%, and Hillary won Massachusetts by 27%.
A 6% difference and a 7% difference. Such serendipity.
One week before the 2016 election, Emerson had Trump winning Texas by 14%, not 9%. In September 2016, Emerson found Clinton winning Massachusetts by 17%, not 27%. If Emerson's got a slight methodological bias that favors Republicans, their Trump 2020 numbers may be a bit inflated.
But when we're so far out from November, betting marke-- I mean, election polls are meaningless. Your post, however, is HUGE HUGE HUGE. Buckle in for the electoral earthquake when America demands to know exactly when Joe Biden knew about the Michael Flynn investigation in which Flynn pled guilty in court, twice.
Don't forget about Tara Reade also. Maybe there will be some poll movement.
No wait, Tara Reade AND Mike Flynn, no fair, you didn't tell me that. NOSEDIVE CITY!
Vanity Fair:
Recent internal polls show Trump trailing Joe Biden in six swing states, a data point that augurs a landslide loss in November. “The swing state polls are horrific,” a prominent Republican briefed on the numbers told me. The White House’s COVID-19 outbreak is only the latest headline that reinforces the narrative that Trump can’t get control of the pandemic. “This is what should worry the campaign: Biden is in his basement and he’s beating Trump,” a former West Wing staffer told me. “If I were Biden, the lesson I would learn is: Shut the fuck up and let Trump go out there and destroy himself.”
...On top of everything, there is also fear in Trumpworld that Senate Republicans might finally break from him if the polls get bad enough. “The numbers are fucking terrible,” another former West Wing official said. “There’s massive anxiety in the GOP that he’s gonna take them all down with him.”
Make sure you print these out and save them for election night.
No need. The internet always remembers.
Election Eve, 2012:
Official Viking Pundit prediction: Romney 285 - Obama 253
I'm absolutely exhausted today but I figured I owed it to my readers (both of them) to put it on the line before the polls open tomorrow. In addition to the 191 votes allocated by the RCP electoral map, I believe Romney/Ryan will get Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado.
Well, you killed that North Carolina prediction.
Election Eve, 2016:
This is the only consolation I can find in this election
Hit and Run: "This is the least important election of our lifetimes."
Right on cue: the Pennsylvania fantasy
Or not, just like every election, once the results from Philadelphia and Pittsburgh come in.
Reminder to self: pick up wine.
Ha ha, dumb liberals assumed Hillary was a lock.
Yeah, I was wrong on that prediction.
At least I didn't promise to eat a bug if Hillary lost.
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