Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Deceive inveigle obfuscate


If you wondered if this White House would ever present the unvarnished truth about the train wreck known as Obamacare, wonder no more.  The book-cooking and goalpost-moving will continue until morale improves.  Here's Megan McArdle:
For several months now, whenever the topic of enrollment in the Affordable Care Act came up, I’ve been saying that it was too soon to tell its ultimate effects. We don’t know how many people have paid for their new insurance policies, or how many of those who bought policies were previously uninsured. For that, I said, we will have to wait for Census Bureau data, which offer the best assessment of the insurance status of the whole population. Other surveys are available, but the samples are smaller, so they’re not as good; the census is the gold standard. Unfortunately, as I invariably noted, these data won’t be available until 2015.
I stand corrected: These data won’t be available at all. Ever.
The Administration claims the change to the way the Census Department calculates the uninsured is designed to make the count more accurate.  But nobody outside of kiss-ass Ezra Klein believes it's anything more than a way to obscure an honest apples-to-apples comparison of health coverage after Obamacare.  The numbers look good: success!  The numbers look bad: oh, well we can never know because of the new calculation.

Extra - Ace: "Obamacare Is So Successful We're Going To Make Sure It's Impossible To Measure Just How Awesome It Is"

More - Twitchy: "Nothing to see here."

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

And if you unskew the numbers hard enough, Romney is president.

Anonymous said...

"Other surveys are available, but the samples are smaller, so they’re not as good; the census is the gold standard."

But luckily, those same surveys are the perfect size to show that Obamacare is wildly unpopular.

siacd999 said...

"We know Obamacare is popular because when we polled the members of wwww.iloveobamacare.com, over 110% of the members said they were happy with Obamacare."

It seems the "post anonymously in favor of Obamacare and get $5 off your health insurance" deal is really working.

vrjredghhb8675309 Jr. said...

Insurers increasing their stakes in the “failed” exchanges, the CBO doubling its coverage projections while knocking off another $100 billion off the pricetag, the states that facilitated Obamacare have seen triple the success of the states who opted out (which is why Republican governors have started to buckle), a supersized Gallup poll pulverizing the GOP unskewing efforts, the “repeal it every Tuesday” House quietly expanding Obamacare last week... the weather vanes are pointing in one direction.

post anonymously

Only a coward wouldn't give his real name. Say “hi” to Mrs. siacd999 for us.

Eric said...

All great news. The Democrats should stand proud and defend the Affordable Care Act. Because it's affordable and provides care.

Payback's a glitch said...

Ah, "the sixth term midterm elections will prove we were really right all along" gambit. Always a classic.

Oh well, if you can't win the presidency, or the policy, or the repeals, or the SCOTUS ruling, or the math, there's always the Sunday morning panel shows.

Eric said...

Obamacare is like a cake baked with salt instead of sugar. It's horrible and everybody hates it, but the supporters keep on taunting: "hey, we got this cake!"

Good luck with that self-affirmation. It will be of great comfort to you when the death spiral starts.

Eric said...

Fox News: "Widows of Alabama county workers dropped from health plans"

Obama: "Tough luck, bitches - I won!"

Anonymous said...

Good luck with that self-affirmation. It will be of great comfort to you when the death spiral starts.

The next conservative Obamacare prediction to come true will be the first.

But the doomsaying keeps right on coming. What was the part about foolhardy self-affirmation again?

Eric said...

"The next conservative Obamacare prediction to come true will be the first."

Wow - OK.

backs away slowly

Def Panel Comedy Jam said...

The Little League "mercy rule" would be applied to halt a fight between the lists of GOP anti-Obamacare predictions that have panned out, and those that haven't. Feigning astonishment doesn't change that.

Eric said...

Which is it man? There are no predictions that are true, or it's lopsided? Do the correct predictions of the GOP outweigh this Administration's predictions?

I'll bet $2500 they do, as soon as those promised savings arrive.

No-stradamus said...

The death panel-filled socialist takeover that will cause skyrocketing health costs, while blowing up the debt, killing jobs, paying bailouts to insurers, and depriving more people of their insurance than it adds, except that the bill will never pass, but if it does pass, it will be declared unconstitutional, but if it isn't, "Obama's Katrina" will ignite enough outrage to boot him from the White House, but if he somehow hangs on, the train wreck website will never work, but if it does, look at these TV ads featuring specific victims of Obamacare, and even if the sob stories are false, the law will never come close to hitting its target numbers, but when they do, they still didn't, because the books are all cooked, cooked I tells ya...

...and then there's $2500. Yeah, that was a stretch. So it's even steven, prediction-wise.

Eric said...

The Baltimore Orioles got three runs against the Red Sox in the first inning Sunday night. Then they walked off the field saying: "The debate is over!"

Really? We didn't see job losses from the suspended employer mandate? We haven't seen premium increases after open enrollment which ended one week ago?

Skyrocketing health costs? Check: "Health care spending rose at the fastest pace in 10 years last quarter, a development that could foreshadow higher costs for consumers this year."

Blowing up debt? Check: http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/28/news/economy/obamacare-deficits/

Killing jobs? Well, full-time jobs, for reasons that baffle CNBC: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2014/04/22/nbcs-martha-white-39-paragraphs-all-time-record-number-temps-not-word-ob

Bailout of insurance companies? Check and already slipped into the White House budget: "The White House’s 2015 budget proposes spending $5.5 billion next year on an ObamaCare program that Republicans have labeled a “bailout” of the insurance industry."

Bogus sign-up numbers? Check: "Half of Georgia's Obamacare Sign-ups Haven't Paid, Says State Insurance Commissioner"

Young invincibles staying away? Check: "Seven states and the District of Columbia have released age data, showing that only one-in-five, or 22 percent, of their new signs-ups are the much-desired, profit-generating younger people, dubbed “young invincibles,” according to a calculation by Reuters.
That 22 percent is barely half the 38 percent target sought by the administration."

In 2012, Obamacare was an abstract. In 2014 it's a reality. Which is why I agree with the prediction of Democrat Rep Stephen Lynch: "The s**t's gonna hit the fan."

Misfortune tellers said...

The Baltimore Orioles got three runs against the Red Sox in the first inning Sunday night. Then they walked off the field saying: "The debate is over!"

It's wonderful to hear the same blogger who posted things like "Only person in America who signed up for Obamacare...didn't" and "Delaware health exchange gets first enrollee" now saying we mustn’t jump to conclusions.

Skyrocketing health costs? Check: "Health care spending rose at the fastest pace in 10 years last quarter, a development that could foreshadow higher costs”

Other times, though, “to heck with the long view” just feels right. That skyrocket sure had a long fuse. The Bureau of Labor Statistics determined that medical cost increases have been lower and stabilized for the last few years. From 2010-2012, health care spending grew more slowly than the U.S. economy for the first time in a generation. The cost slowdown was the most marked since the government began tracking such data in 1960. Years of cost reduction plus an improving economy were a good recipe for last quarter’s “fastest pace” comparison.

Still, that most recent quarter was a high outlier. It is a concern. And it’s a smaller increase in health care costs than all of 2007. Or 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001 or 2000. Or every year from 1990-1999 except 1996. Or every year from 1980-1989. This is where we’ve arrived: one of the best health cost quarters in the last thirty years is now considered troubling.

http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/33/1/67.abstract

http://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/NationalHealthAccountsHistorical.html

Blowing up debt? Check:

It'd be better to doublecheck. Quoted from your link: “When will we know who's right? It may be awhile. Obamacare is a very complex law with lots of moving parts that phase in (and out) over time.” Then the article talks about the sharp and consistent decrease in spending growth since 2008 mentioned above. Then it says that costs are expected to rise in coming years. Then it mentions the uncertainty about a diverse-enough pool of enrollees (but current information indicates there is one) and whether there will be enough competition to reduce costs (but many insurers are already moving to join the exchanges). For those who don’t want to wait and need an answer now, the CBO projected last week that the ACA will reduce the deficit. Unlike repealing it.

Killing jobs? Well, full-time jobs

The amount of temp jobs in America doubled between 1983-1987, tripled between 1983-1991, sextupled between 1983-1995, and nontupled between 1983-2000. Since 1983, the temp industry has grown five times faster than overall employment. What else to blame for this 30-year trend but Obamacare?

http://economics.mit.edu/files/567

Misfortune tellers said...

Bailout of insurance companies? Check and already slipped into the White House budget: "The White House’s 2015 budget proposes spending $5.5 billion next year on an ObamaCare program that Republicans have labeled a “bailout” of the insurance industry."

Ooh, if Frank Luntz tells Republicans to say “bailout,” then it MUST be true. Most of the money pool comes from the insurers themselves, the kind of free market accountability Republicans always say they want. Skip past that minor detail. The CBO says the government will turn a $8 billion profit on these “bailouts.” And with some reason; identically structured risk corridors have made the Medicare Part D bill LESS costly to taxpayers, not more.

http://cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/45010-breakout-AppendixB.pdf

Bogus sign-up numbers? Check: "Half of Georgia's Obamacare Sign-ups Haven't Paid, Says State Insurance Commissioner"

This is a stupid sore loser talking point which will die soon. What was that about the Baltimore Orioles’ first inning again?

Young invincibles staying away? Check: "Seven states and the District of Columbia have released age data, showing that only one-in-five, or 22 percent, of their new signs-ups are the much-desired, profit-generating younger people, dubbed “young invincibles,” according to a calculation by Reuters.
That 22 percent is barely half the 38 percent target sought by the administration."


Forget the first inning; this is outfield stretching and warmup tossing. That quote is from January. Subsequent reports have rendered those numbers obsolete.

Within the federal marketplace totals announced earlier this month, 28% of enrollees are ages 18-34. “Young invincibles” made up 28.3% of the initial open enrollment for Romneycare. (That extra 0.3% must be because Massachusetts did not actively impede its citizens from signing up.)

We’ve been given very few totals to work with, though. The actual state by state projections are proprietary information. However, insurers HAVE seen the numbers, and are aggressively expanding their participation. That suggests how discouraged they are by the young’s inadequate response to this failed law.

In 2012, Obamacare was an abstract. In 2014 it's a reality. Which is why I agree with the prediction of Democrat Rep Stephen Lynch: "The s**t's gonna hit the fan."

There is another thing that worked better back when Obamacare was an abstract: Republican predictions of doom. Good luck with the bad luck.

Eric said...

Old and busted: "The debate is over!"
New and shiny: "Things are going to get better, you'll see!"

My my you really showed me on those health care cost numbers...from 2012. Then there's the CBO who makes estimates based on the law as written and enforced (ha ha) vs. the GAO who makes estimates based on what is likely to happen. Obamacare based revenues on tax penalties from mandates that are not being enforced. That $100 billion "savings" over ten years is a patina of a rounding error.

What else? I already addressed the risk corridors: http://vikingpundit.blogspot.com/2014/02/about-those-obamacare-risk-corridors.html

Yes, you got me, they only fell 10% short of the youth target instead of 16%. We will have a kinder-gentler death spiral. And they will pay their inflated premiums because to say otherwise is just a stupid talking point, says I.

Can you address some other predictions - some would say lies - from the other side?

"You can keep your health plan. Period."
"You can keep your doctor. Period."
"Your premiums will go down $2500."
"Once it passes, it will be popular."
"We absolutely will not extend the enrollment deadline."
"I solemnly vow to uphold the Constitution."

No-stradamus said...

“And yet it moves.”
--Galileo

And yet the insurers are expanding their participation for 2015 and beyond.

Your posts are fabulous, read my lips and I didn’t inhale and mission accomplished and $2500 and $2500 and $2500, I hope it all works out for you. Something's bound to go wrong eventually. But I’m going to bet on the insurers.