Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Welcome to the party, Oregon!

Washington Examiner: "Oregon signs up just 44 people for Obamacare despite spending $300 million."


Nigel Tufnel said...

Beware confirmation bias. Drill down a little. The guy who’s fanning the flames of your outrage (like many of the guys fanning the flames of your outrage) is not credible. Here’s a note from the bottom of the table he’s all giddy about, with the OUTRAGEOUS number of 44 applicants in Oregon:

(16) Oregon -- Between 10/01 and 11/02, Oregon had not yet started using its electronic eligibility determination system. In that period, Cover Oregon began receiving and processing paper applications (including applications by postal mail, fax, and fillable PDF). The “Completed Applications” indicator for this period reflects complete paper applications received. Midway through the time period 11/03 – 11/30, Oregon began using its electronic determination system to process paper applications. The “Completed Applications” indicator in this period reflects all applications that were ready to process for determination in the period.

So the actual number is 20,617, not 44. Elsewhere in the report there is a graph showing that enrollment is on a steep trajectory, suggesting that number is in the process of increasing rapidly. But that adds to your cognitive dissonance. Ignore it and feel better.

Comedy is timing said...

So the actual number is 20,617, not 44.

Or, if "right this very minute" is the only thing that matters, these three stories report that 3,470 Oregonians have already enrolled for Obamacare, with tens of thousands more en route. And each was published a full week before your Washington Examiner link:

Also, the Examiner's "just 44 people" schadenfreude doesn't include the 6,461 Oregon residents who'd already completed their signups for the Medicaid expansion. (And certainly not those Oregonians in the pipeline to do so.) Because in state after state, counting that alternate category really f's up the narrative.

Eric said...

USA Today says 44.

Enroll Maven, which keeps a running tally, says 730.

QHP Enrollment: 730 (12.11.13)
Administration Enrollment Goal: 237,000
Percent of Goal Achieved: 0.3%

The actual number is not 20,617 - that's the number of applications sent to Cover Oregon of which they've processed 44 (or 730).

Even 20K applications is a pitiful showing given that the enrollment target is 237K in Oregon. No wonder the Obama administration is touting metrics like web site visits and "shopping cart" contents.

Formula 44 said...

Oregon's impossibly bad Obamacare showing is just part of a pattern that is even worse than our most horrible nightmares. Why, did you know that by every March 1, fewer than 2% of Oregonians have paid their federal taxes?

Enroll Maven, which keeps a running tally, says 730.

Guess who else says 730? The same USA Today article you just cited for saying 44:
"The state's own tally [...] shows 9,949 people had enrolled as of Tuesday — 9,219 in Medicaid and 730 in private plans."

(For obvious reasons, the 9,219 doesn't exist.)

The actual number is not 20,617

The roundup website agrees. They've got Oregon as 62,461.

Nigel Tufnel said...

That brief moment of realistic self assessment after the collective Republican mass delusion that was the last presidential election has become a distant memory.

The Vike is back, baby!

Eric said...

Keep humping those Medicaid stats, which have nothing whatsoever to do with the viability of the Obamacare exchanges.

It's the kind of consolation you swallow along the lines of "you have a bigger dressing room than the puppets."

Anonymous said...

If you "unskew" Oregon's 44 enrollees, there's probably only 38!