Calling the bluff - Megan McArdle: "Go ahead, GOP, make Obama's day." "Because it is a bluff. Obama is not going to shut down the government rather than accept a short term deal. He's also not going to default. Doing so would virtually ensure that even if he doesn't have to raise the debt ceiling in 2012, come January 2013, he'll be cleaning out the Oval Office to make room for the next resident."