The last debate

I'm just going to type away and not add any links until later. That's OK, right?

Anyway, I sincerely believe that the second debate was John McCain's last chance to turn the momentum of this election around. Only the most ossified partisan would say he did anything to improve his prospects in that debate, and there's considerable evidence he made things worse. Could he possibly turn things around tonight? I doubt it: opinions have hardened and voting has already begun across the country.

Essentially, McCain is fighting to avoid a blowout and maybe go out with a little dignity. That's why I don't believe he'll bring up William Ayers or Jeremiah Wright in tonight's debate. It only plays into the Obama camp's strategy to portray McCain as an angry, erratic, old pol who is avoiding the issues of the day. I think for every one vote he gains because of Obama's associations, he loses five from people (mostly independents) who want the candidates to focus on the faltering economy and the pending recession.

McCain should go out and hammer Obama on his tax plan and, specifically, his explanation to that plumber who is essentially being punished for his success. He should point out that Obama will raise taxes on the small businessmen (like this plumber) who could be using that money to hire apprentices and workers. Finally, he should point out the redistributive aspect of Obama's plan to "spread the wealth" that further tilts the entire tax burden of the country onto a handful of wealthy people. In times of economic trouble, the siren call of Robin Hood politics is strong; McCain has to make the case why it's ultimately cancerous to the economy and society as a whole.

Some have pointed out that McCain has been counted out before, but all the momentum and enthusiasm in this election is only pointing one way. Forget about Ayers and Wright, focus on the economy and what it means at the kitchen table, and...well...we'll see.

Extra - Scott at Power Line has more on tax distributions:

Despite Obama's implication to the contrary, however, It doesn't represent much in the way of change. According to the most recent (2006) data released by the IRS, the top 1 percent of filers paid nearly 40 percent of all income taxes; the top 5 percent paid 60 percent of all income taxes. The bottom 50 percent paid virtually no income taxes (3 percent of all income taxes paid).
The personal income tax, the federal government's main source of revenue, is collected overwhelmingly from a relative handful of Americans. The large majority of all Americans pay little or no income tax.
Given that poorer citizens always outnumber the rich, political philosophers have long worried that government based on majority rule could lead to organized theft from the wealthy by the democratic masses. "If the majority distributes among itself the things of a minority, it is evident that it will destroy the city," warns Aristotle.

And TaxProf Blog notes that Obama's tax plan actually raises the marginal tax rates for lower-income workers:

Because Mr. Obama's tax credits are phased out as incomes rise, they impose a huge "marginal" tax rate increase on low-income workers. The marginal tax rate refers to the rate on the next dollar of income earned. As the nearby chart illustrates, the marginal rate for millions of low- and middle-income workers would spike as they earn more income.

One mystery -- among many -- of the McCain campaign is why it has allowed Mr. Obama's 95% illusion to go unanswered.

More on "Obama's 95% Illusion" from the Wall Street Journal.

Even more - Here's the chart of which the Tax Prof speaks: