Thursday, August 30, 2007

Runaway entitlements leading to Fortress America

From the Boston Globe: "America's golden years?"

Although the aging crisis is less severe in the United States than in the other great powers, the challenges arising from this crisis are far from trivial. The Congressional Budget Office projects that by 2015, spending on the elderly in the United States will total almost $1.8 trillion -- nearly half of the anticipated federal budget. For the United States, healthcare costs are the biggest problem presented by an aging population. This country spends more than twice as much per capita in this area than any other industrialized state. By conservative estimates, absent reforms, the costs of Medicare alone will be at least $2.6 trillion in 2050 in today's dollars -- roughly the size of the current US federal budget.

To pay for the massive fiscal costs associated with its aging population, the United States is likely to have to scale back its international policies. America will be less able in the future to dedicate significant resources to preventing WMD proliferation, funding nation building, and engaging in humanitarian interventions. So at the same time that global aging will help prevent the rise of great power competitors, this phenomenon may jeopardize other vital US international interests.

To protect its international security, the United States needs to maintain its enviable demographic position. Specifically, it should reduce Social Security and Medicare payments to wealthier citizens, raise the retirement age to reflect increases in life expectancies, maintain largely open immigration policies, and, above all, restrain the rising costs of its healthcare system. A defining political question of the 21st century is whether US leaders have sufficient political will and wisdom to implement these and related policies. Failure to do so will significantly jeopardize future levels of America's global influence and safety.
Tell me about it. Without reform, there won't be room for regular domestic spending, much less security or humanitarian efforts; time for the turtle shell.

3 comments:

Jody said...

The question is, will we be able to build enough laser towers in time?

Anonymous said...

Been reading Cardinal of the Kremlin again, Jody? Gracious. Timepiece it is, but Clancy's never been all that far off base when ya think about it...

All I can hope is that the 2008 elections toss out those who refuse to deal with the Elephant on the House Floor -- on both sides of the aisle.

JorgXMcKie said...

I have no idea why anyone would ask that question. No way do "US leaders have sufficient political will and wisdom" to do much of anything important. When they do do anything useful they've always been forced into it by circumstances, not by exerting political leadership.