Democrats lead in poll among people who won’t vote

From the Washington Times, via Free Republic – “Polling analysis finds GOP in the lead”:

Most polls say a majority of registered voters would vote Democrat if the congressional elections were held today, but a new independent polling analysis now finds that Republicans could lead among people who actually vote.

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll reported last week that the Democrats led Republicans among registered voters in the generic congressional survey by 50 percent to 43 percent, a seven-point margin that could give Democrats enough victories to take control of the House, if their supporters participate in November's elections.

But a deeper analysis of these numbers by David W. Moore for the Gallup Poll said, "It is likely many voters will not do so" because turnout among registered voters tends to be lower than that among "likely voters" who say they plan to vote and usually do.

In his analysis, Mr. Moore writes that Gallup's "experience over the past two midterm elections, in 1998 and 2002, suggests that the [registered voters] numbers tend to overstate the Democratic margin by about 10 percentage points."

"Given that Democrats currently lead by seven points, that could mean that among people who will definitely vote, Republicans actually lead by three to four points," he said.

The party without voters is also, coincidentally, without a message. Hat tip to Florida Cracker who notes: “Bonus word power entry: fissiparous!” Oh yeah!

Extra – From RCP, here’s President Bush’s approval/disapproval numbers. Man, that CBS poll is brutal.