Monday, November 01, 2021

Gaming the CBO score

The Corner: "How Manchin’s Attack on ‘Budget Gimmicks’ Could Be Death Knell for Biden Agenda."
What he's talking about here is something I addressed last week when I wrote about the “Build Back Better” framework. As Democrats were forced to pare down the price-tag of the bill, one thing they did was to only fund certain programs for a few years, in hopes that as they gained a constituency, they would get extended indefinitely. In the meantime, they can create the appearance of a less costly bill.

CBO considers the impact of a bill over a ten-year budget window and its analysts can only evaluate what’s put in front of them. In the current framework, Democrats extend the per child family allowance for a year, expand Obamacare for four years, and create universal pre-K and child-care programs that are only funded for six. If the CBO were to score this bill, they would only consider the costs for one, four, and six years, respectively. But what Manchin is talking about when he says “if you extend it permanently” is that he is trying to think about the ten-year cost of the bill if these new welfare programs remain in place beyond the expiration dates laid out in the framework. Brian Riedl of the Manhattan Institute has said the true cost of the framework is close to $4 trillion over a decade on that basis.
This isn't the first time the Democrats have manipulated the CBO score:
“This bill was written in a tortured way to make sure CBO did not score the mandate as taxes,” Gruber explained to academics last year. “If CBO scored the mandate as taxes, the bill dies. Okay, so it’s written to do that.”
As Gruber noted, it's important to take advantage of the "stupidity of the American voter." 

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