Republican Charlie Baker has opened up a 9-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley, 45 percent to 36 percent, according to a new Globe poll that depicts a far more comfortable advantage than either candidate for governor has enjoyed in months.Nine. Points. I have to comment on the quality of television commercials I've seen: Baker's commercials are "jobs jobs jobs" backed with American flags while Coakley...talks about her brother who had mental illness. Huh? The negative ads have been handled mostly by outside groups and virtually every one by the Baker supporters shows Coakley awkwardly guessing that the gas tax in Massachusetts is ten cents (it's actually 24 cents). This election is coming down to an unlikable Democrat against an appealing alternative.
The poll reflects an October surge in independent voters toward Baker’s column. It was independents who provided Governor Deval Patrick with his margins of victory in 2006 and 2010.
And since I'm already on that theme, this is why I think Scott Brown is going to win in New Hampshire. The polls there are extremely tight and, just like Coakley, I don't think there's a wellspring of support for Jeanne Shaheen. If it comes down to turnout, Brown's going to overcome a 1-2% deficit. IIRC independents broke heavily for Brown in his special election for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat so maybe lightning will strike twice.