Tuesday, May 18, 2010

The polls are open!

I should have made these predictions last night but, since all the polls are open at this writing, they're still valid:

PA Senate Democratic primary: Joe Sestak over Arlen Specter 51%-49%. Sestak's last campaign ad painting Specter as an opportunist was a master stroke. The White House has been distancing itself from Specter for a month now, so I think they know he's toast.

Kentucky Senate Republican primary: Rand Paul wins in a walk over Trey Greyson. A double digit win will make a lot of people wonder how the Tea Party gained so much power, so quickly.

Arkansas Senate Democratic primary: Blanche Lincoln will eke out a "win" here, say 49%-47%, which will force a runoff in three weeks, anyway.

The big one: Pennsylvania-12 special election - This has been an absolute dead heat between Republican Tim Burns and Democrat Mark Critz to fill the late Jack Murtha's seat. I think Tim Burns wins by a point and here's why: elections in general and special elections in particular bring out two kinds of people: the enthusiastic and the elderly (who vote all the time). I don't think I need to reiterate that Republicans are extremely eager to vote today and in November. But a lot of the Gray Panthers who will be heading out the polls today have been unhappy with health care reform and ready to vote. So if the polls are even, it's all about turnout; Burns will pull it out.

The Viking Pundit has spoken!


Anonymous said...

Might be wishful thinking. The Democratic Specter-Sestak battle had much more electricity than the GOP primary, where Toomey is going to breeze to victory.

An increased Democratic turnout would give Mark Critz a boost: "As long as I'm already here, voting for (or against) Arlen..."

Eric said...

I hadn't thought of that. So far it's looking like Critz has a healthy lead. Stupid polls!