Saturday, August 02, 2014

It's never the dog food

Hit and Run reports: "Survey Shows Massive Spike in Anti-Obamacare Opinion."  "In the last month, the survey reports an eight-point increase in unfavorable views of the health law, rising from 45 to 53 percent, and a two point drop in favorability from 39 down to 37.  Unfavorables are at their highest point ever in the survey, and the gap between positive and negative views of the law is nearly as large as it has ever been."

Could it be the ongoing policy cancellations or skyrocketing premiums?  Nope.  According to the reality-based community, it's stupid Americans.  Daily Kos: "Misinformation still driving Obamacare poll numbers."  By gum, this Administration just can't get their message across!

As they say in the ad biz: it's never the dog food.

9 comments:

Woof said...

Hit and Run: if you're only going to look at one number to gauge public opinion about the health law, this is it.

If they say so. But if you're not only going to look at one number...

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/07/23/cnn-poll-is-obamacare-working/

Last week's CNN/ORC International survey:

17%: want more liberal version of Obamacare
40%: support Obamacare as is
38%: oppose Obamacare or anything stronger

Repeal wins, 38% to 57%.

For even more numbers, there's the rest of the poll discussed by Hit and Run. 60% want their Congressman to try to improve the law, while only 35% want to see it scrapped.

Daily Kos: "Misinformation still driving Obamacare poll numbers."

According to the poll cited by Hit and Run, just 37% correctly understand the health plan options available to enrollees.

37%... 35%... 38%... nope, no pattern there.

Whiff said...

60% want their Congressman to try to improve the law, while only 35% want to see it scrapped.

"Improve", in the minds of those being asked, can mean anything from changing the law so it allows subsidies for federal exchange policies, to essentially rewriting the law. So in reality "repeal" is more like a continuum than a yes/no question.

You don't need to "scrap" it to have a completely different law. As Obama has shown, fiats alone can do that.

Bottom line: this is one spectacularly unpopular law, and no tap dance will change that.

Repeal wins, 38%to 57%...35% want to see it scrapped...According to the poll cited by Hit and Run, just 37% correctly understand the health plan options available to enrollees. 37%... 35%... 38%... nope, no pattern there. I like your logic, Razz. You realize you just stated that the people who understand the law want it repealed. We're in agreement!

Woof said...

The correct poll numbers, leave them alone, they're perfect. The wrong numbers from the same poll, well, who among us can hope to pierce the mind of man to know what people are really thinking? What number can ever capture the human heart?

After all, "improved" might actually mean total repeal followed by impeachment and beheading. Or it might mean expanding coverage to include dogs, or adding a big set of fake boobs to the 2,000-page bill. Everybody likes boobs!

Eric said...

OK, so 60% want the law changed in some way. Why not do that? The problems with Obamacare can only be addressed by the legislative process, not by the President deciding that "January 1st 2014" means "whatevs."

Woof said...

OK, so 60% want the law changed in some way. Why not do that?

Because 60% of House Representatives refuse to do that.

The problems with Obamacare can only be addressed by the legislative process

This is not true as a matter of law, or as a matter of practical precedent. Especially since the legislative process is otherwise occupied, concocting a futile lawsuit to thrill the groundlings in the cheap seats.

Judicial case history has almost never found these kinds of enforcement delays to be unreasonable. The only exceptions have been when the delay lasts for many years, with no legally persuasive explanation. Read Heckler v. Chaney to see how any legal challenge to Obama's temporary non-enforcement of particular ACA provisions is certain to fare.

In this context, the "problem with Obamacare" is that this Congress has chosen not to amend and clarify its own legislation, as previous Congresses have commonly done. That's their tactical political decision.

But by declining to do so, they've obliged/permitted Obama to become -- if I'm reading the criticism correctly -- the very first and only President in the entire history of America to exploit his limited discretionary powers to set enforcement policy.

Eric said...

No, I don't think that's accurate.

For example, there's been significant pressure mounting from both sides of the aisle to jettison the employer mandate - the same one that Obama is conveniently delaying until after the midterm elections. So with bipartisan agreement, why not re-write the law to remove this requirement?

The reason is because this jammed-through legislation is the "fruit of a poisoned tree", Obamacare can't be re-legislated because Republicans would demand all sorts of (popular) changes. So, you are correct, the reason is purely political.

I'm sure if the GOP tries, we'll hear the "50 attempts to repeal Obamacare!" lament again.

"It's the LAW!"*

* unless it isn't

Whiff said...

... the "problem with Obamacare" is that this Congress has chosen not to amend and clarify its own legislation, as previous Congresses have commonly done.

Whoa. First you acknowledge that those who understand Obamacare want it repealed, and now you call for Republican participation in whatever revisions get done to it.

What is happening to you?

Woof said...

the employer mandate - the same one that Obama is conveniently delaying until after the midterm elections

The law is terrible... and such small portions!

Obamacare can't be re-legislated because Republicans would demand all sorts of (popular) changes.

Such as? Making it unfunded like Medicare Part D, and what else?

It’s strange. You'd have thought that a really (popular) change would have occurred in 2012, when Mitt Romney promised to give America what it demanded by getting rid of Obamacare "on Day One." How on earth did the 38% majority fail to make that happen?

I'm sure if the GOP tries, we'll hear the "50 attempts to repeal Obamacare!" lament again.

Because 49 attempts to repeal and 1 attempt to re-legislate would have been absurd. Wouldn’t it be just AWFUL if some spinmeister unfairly demagogued the Republicans’ sincere, heartfelt desire to give ACA a few minor tweaks?

Eric said...

Popular changes (off the top of my head):
1) Eliminate medical device tax
2) Eliminate "community rating" that fixes the premium ratio, hurting younger workers
3) Eliminate employer mandate (pretty much done already)