Tuesday, March 11, 2008

The race so far - If we factor in Obama's win tonight and put Pennsylvania aside for the moment, let's assume that Clinton and Obama split all the remaining contests 50/50. This is not altogether unreasonable considering that Obama should do well in North Carolina whereas Hillary should do OK in, oh let's say Oregon.

Given that scenario, by what margin would Hillary have to win in Pennsylvania to take the lead in pledged delegates? Here's the deal: Obama would have to fall below the threshold of 15% so that all of the Keystone State's 158 delegates would go to Hillary. In other words, Clinton would have to win by slightly more than 70%.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is assuming that the pledged delegates lead is going to determine the nominee.

Anonymous said...

You said it, because those Clintons, they're like rattlesnakes! And there's nothing, NOTHING, that the incredibly competent Obama campaign, the DNC and its leadership, the majority of the party members, or the fundamental principles of mathematics can do to stop them!

Anonymous said...

You'll see the real Superman zooming past your window and reversing time, before you see the superdelegates reversing the Democratic nomination.