You know, we just may be reaching the point of no return in rolling up 'massive warchests'. What is all that money buying today? Not much I can see that can't also be done on the web.
That is, once you have enough to run certain types of commercials and put in place a GOTV force most of the interesting stuff can go online. And the money tends to come from very interested partisans. Are Repub and/or McCain partisans all that interested right now? After all, would either Obama or Hillary be getting big bucks right now without the continuing race? And where is their money going?
The most effective thing for the Bush campaign last time cost him nothing. It was the Swiftboat ads.
And how many delegates did Romney get with all his money?
I really do think we've hit a saturation point, and that's added to the situation in which the MSM, and particularly tv news, can no longer ignore stuff because the web eventually forces them to acknowledge things. For instance, once Obama had to give his 'race speech' even NPR had to discuss *why* he had to give the speech. They could no longer ignore the existence of Rev Wright.
All-in-all you'd always prefer to have a lot of money, but I'm convinced that at the presidential level it's no longer that determinative.
Good points, Dave. That, in addition to the fact that we have 3more months of Obama vs. Hillary draining their coffers trying to bleed the other to death. I think there may be a lot of folks (like me) who haven't given a nickel yet, because we were so pissed at our party in the 2006 elections.
Pay no attention to those two dozen GOP canaries who've already decided to retire from their seats, rather than run this November. The air in this mine shaft is the same for both sides.
In his old role as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Rep. Tom Reynolds (N.Y.) often cajoled wavering Republicans into running for re-election. Back home in his district Thursday afternoon, Reynolds announced that he won't be running again himself.
Consider it a sign of how the House GOP views its prospects for November.
Having just lost 30 seats and their majority power, Republicans in the House started 2007 thinking that their political fortunes couldn't get much worse.
The more optimistic thinking went like this: Democrats who had won seats in solidly conservative districts in 2006 would have to defend those seats in 2008, when they'd likely be saddled with Hillary Rodham Clinton as the Democrats' presidential nominee.
The GOP would have a long list of potential targets and, with only eight Republicans representing seats in districts that John F. Kerry won in 2004, a relatively short list of vulnerable members to protect. And the ethical problems that proved so damaging to the party in 2006 would be distant memories by the time voters went to the polls the next time around.
It hasn't worked out that way.
A sizable wave of retirements, a significant financial disadvantage, a brewing accounting scandal and recruiting woes in some of the nation's most heavily Republican districts have left a party once poised to play offense struggling to break even instead. Republicans now face a serious risk that they'll lose more House seats to the Democrats in November. Among those seats is the one Reynolds is vacating.
While sympathizing with Reynolds' plight - "the last few years have not been for fun for him" - a GOP operative said Thursday that the former NRCC chairman's retirement will only make matters worse for a party that's already reeling. "It will further depress an already-dejected House GOP conference," the operative said. "Twenty-nine [retirements] and counting, and some great members and exceptional minds are among that number."
Reynolds is the 29th House Republican to announce a retirement or resignation or already to have lost a seat this election cycle. Many vacancies are in districts that will likely be highly competitive in the fall: Of the 29 Republican-held open seats this election cycle, nearly half are in districts where President Bush won with 55 percent of the vote or less in 2004.
Over the last two years, Democrats have already picked up the seats of former House Speaker Dennis Hastert and former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Communications Director Jennifer Crider said Thursday that her party is "well-positioned to pick up Reynolds' seat," as well.
"With today's announcement, five of six elected Republican leaders from the 2006 cycle have retired or quit - Hastert, DeLay, Pryce, Doolittle and Reynolds - and Democrats are competitive in each of these districts," Crider said.
"Make no mistake," Reynolds said. "This is a Republican district, and it will again be represented by a Republican next year."
But the Republican Party's standing in New York has taken a hit lately, particularly in the ancestrally Republican upstate part of the Empire State. Since 1996, Republicans have lost a Senate seat and seven House seats in New York - without picking up a single Democratic district in an election.
...what they won't have is money, or at least not "more than enough" of it. The NRCC reported that it ended February with $5.1 million cash on hand, about $1.3 million less than last month's total and a fraction of the $38 million the DCCC said it had on hand at the end of February. The NRCC spent over $1.2 million - nearly one-fifth of its campaign cash - in the unsuccessful effort to defend Hastert's seat in a special election earlier this month.
4 comments:
You know, we just may be reaching the point of no return in rolling up 'massive warchests'. What is all that money buying today? Not much I can see that can't also be done on the web.
That is, once you have enough to run certain types of commercials and put in place a GOTV force most of the interesting stuff can go online. And the money tends to come from very interested partisans. Are Repub and/or McCain partisans all that interested right now? After all, would either Obama or Hillary be getting big bucks right now without the continuing race? And where is their money going?
The most effective thing for the Bush campaign last time cost him nothing. It was the Swiftboat ads.
And how many delegates did Romney get with all his money?
I really do think we've hit a saturation point, and that's added to the situation in which the MSM, and particularly tv news, can no longer ignore stuff because the web eventually forces them to acknowledge things. For instance, once Obama had to give his 'race speech' even NPR had to discuss *why* he had to give the speech. They could no longer ignore the existence of Rev Wright.
All-in-all you'd always prefer to have a lot of money, but I'm convinced that at the presidential level it's no longer that determinative.
Good points, Dave. That, in addition to the fact that we have 3more months of Obama vs. Hillary draining their coffers trying to bleed the other to death. I think there may be a lot of folks (like me) who haven't given a nickel yet, because we were so pissed at our party in the 2006 elections.
-Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg
Pay no attention to those two dozen GOP canaries who've already decided to retire from their seats, rather than run this November. The air in this mine shaft is the same for both sides.
http://www.wboc.com/Global/story.asp?S=8050378&nav=QEMt
Latest House Retirement Leaves GOP Reeling
In his old role as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Rep. Tom Reynolds (N.Y.) often cajoled wavering Republicans into running for re-election. Back home in his district Thursday afternoon, Reynolds announced that he won't be running again himself.
Consider it a sign of how the House GOP views its prospects for November.
Having just lost 30 seats and their majority power, Republicans in the House started 2007 thinking that their political fortunes couldn't get much worse.
The more optimistic thinking went like this: Democrats who had won seats in solidly conservative districts in 2006 would have to defend those seats in 2008, when they'd likely be saddled with Hillary Rodham Clinton as the Democrats' presidential nominee.
The GOP would have a long list of potential targets and, with only eight Republicans representing seats in districts that John F. Kerry won in 2004, a relatively short list of vulnerable members to protect. And the ethical problems that proved so damaging to the party in 2006 would be distant memories by the time voters went to the polls the next time around.
It hasn't worked out that way.
A sizable wave of retirements, a significant financial disadvantage, a brewing accounting scandal and recruiting woes in some of the nation's most heavily Republican districts have left a party once poised to play offense struggling to break even instead. Republicans now face a serious risk that they'll lose more House seats to the Democrats in November. Among those seats is the one Reynolds is vacating.
While sympathizing with Reynolds' plight - "the last few years have not been for fun for him" - a GOP operative said Thursday that the former NRCC chairman's retirement will only make matters worse for a party that's already reeling. "It will further depress an already-dejected House GOP conference," the operative said. "Twenty-nine [retirements] and counting, and some great members and exceptional minds are among that number."
Reynolds is the 29th House Republican to announce a retirement or resignation or already to have lost a seat this election cycle. Many vacancies are in districts that will likely be highly competitive in the fall: Of the 29 Republican-held open seats this election cycle, nearly half are in districts where President Bush won with 55 percent of the vote or less in 2004.
Over the last two years, Democrats have already picked up the seats of former House Speaker Dennis Hastert and former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Communications Director Jennifer Crider said Thursday that her party is "well-positioned to pick up Reynolds' seat," as well.
"With today's announcement, five of six elected Republican leaders from the 2006 cycle have retired or quit - Hastert, DeLay, Pryce, Doolittle and Reynolds - and Democrats are competitive in each of these districts," Crider said.
"Make no mistake," Reynolds said. "This is a Republican district, and it will again be represented by a Republican next year."
But the Republican Party's standing in New York has taken a hit lately, particularly in the ancestrally Republican upstate part of the Empire State. Since 1996, Republicans have lost a Senate seat and seven House seats in New York - without picking up a single Democratic district in an election.
...what they won't have is money, or at least not "more than enough" of it. The NRCC reported that it ended February with $5.1 million cash on hand, about $1.3 million less than last month's total and a fraction of the $38 million the DCCC said it had on hand at the end of February. The NRCC spent over $1.2 million - nearly one-fifth of its campaign cash - in the unsuccessful effort to defend Hastert's seat in a special election earlier this month.
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