Canary in a coalmine – Scott at Election Projection predicts a 7% win for Bilbray in CA-50 and, in his profound estimation, a “4-8 point win will give me confidence that the GOP will indeed hold both houses in November.” Less than a 4% win, not so good. Unfortunately, I can’t stay up for the West Coast results.
Update - Bilbray wins by just slightly more than 4% on a 33% turnout.
Extra – And here’s the final note from John Podhoretz: “Republican Brian Bilbray has won the much-discussed race to fill the House seat of the now-imprisoned Duke Cunningham. This will come as a blow to Democrats and mediacrats who, as usual, got themselves all excited about taking a safe GOP seat as a harbinger of Republican disaster come November. But the question is whether Republicans are going to get overexcited by the results too, and overestimate the meaning of this victory — which may simply be a very mild indicator that the public is not, in fact, in a revolutionary mood.” Sounds about right.
3 comments:
A June election? A June election that'll barely attract 20% of the eligible voters in one Republican precinct? Presumably only the most rabid 20% of partisans on both sides? And this election is supposed to be the CRUCIAL HARBINGER of things to come?
4%? 8%? I know that everybody's overexcited about the approval ratings and the future, and there's nothing else concrete to chew over now. But if this election is the key to it all, nothing personal, but I'll still stick to deducing the fate of the 110th House by waving a candle over these goose entrails.
Just like Kos, you takes your moral victories where you can find them.
Anyhoo, it does seem to go to show that you still can't beat something with nothing.
So Busby made a clunker of a statement late in the race. So what. In trying to avoid saying much of anything at all, Dems all too frequently end up saying something remarkably stupid ("I was for it before I was against it).
And the reason Dems try to avoid saying anything at all is because the believe that their hardcore idiot left wing will always believe they're hearing what they want to hear and if they can just waffle enough and call Repubs names they'll attract enough voters from the middle to win.
Still doesn't look like a winning strategy to me. Maybe they should try pushing some issues that the middle cares about even if it does irritate their left wing.
JorgXMcKie
Actually I think it is a harbinger of forthcoming status quo. Duke is gone but voters still weren't won over by an illegal alien pandering lefty. I don't foresee the kind of sea change that is going to turn out tons of incumbents but maybe I'm wrong.
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