In which I (happily) admit I’m wrong
Just to show that I’m not above correcting myself: for months Jayson at Polipundit has been predicting that the GOP will pick up between one and three Senate seats in the 2006 election and I’ve been highly skeptical. Historically, the President’s party has never picked up Senate seats in the sixth year of his Administration and typically loses three or more seats. But the Democrats are in such disarray, fighting amongst themselves over policy, that they can’t mount a coordinated and credible campaign. Furthermore, as Mickey Kaus retells, political analyst Michael Barone thinks 2006 might be the election year to buck history: “In the long run, Republicans are well positioned to increase their numbers in both Senate and House.”
Extra – From Barone Blog, here’s “Bush’s gains and losses”: “Where did Bush gain most (6 percent or more)? In districts that can be characterized by the following labels: Italians, Jacksonians, Latinos, and Asians.”
2 comments:
The long-term forces at play are stronger than the silly polling blips we're seeing right now.
Fundraising is stronger for GOPers than Dems. And even in the "bad polls," Democrats fare worse.
I think Bush is catching criticism from the Fallujah delenda est crowd. They want us to take off the kid gloves in Iraq. Republicans are not going to lose these people to the anti-war left.
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