Mickey Kaus writes:
Recent multiple exposures to Westside L.A. liberals confirms that (as GeorgeWill and Kevin Drum suggest) Hillary Clinton is currently heading for a much bigger train wreck in her party than anticipated--a wreck all her cautious planning failed to anticipate, and probably exacerbated.The crux of Kaus’ (and others) argument is that the emboldened and increasingly vocal anti-war Left will not support a candidate who voted for the war in Iraq; Hillary’s membership in the DLC is another deal-killer. I’m not so sure. After the 2006 midterms and at least two more years of GOP dominance ahead, the Democrats will be thoroughly whipped, searching for anybody who can bring them victory. Remember how John Kerry was the most “electable” candidate? In 2008, the Democrats will be looking at the built-in Clinton base, the money advantage, and wax nostalgic for the Bill years. They’ll nominate Hillary knowing that everything she says that sounds moderate will be just for show. Only too late will the Democrats come to the realization that there’s nearly no chance for Hillary to capture any additional states than Gore and Kerry won.
6 comments:
Right about the skepticism, wrong about the electoral math.
Colorado-- Bush by 100,000 (5%)
Florida-- Bush by 380,000 (5%)
Louisiana-- Bush by 180,000 (5%)
Missouri-- Bush by 200,000 (7%)
Nevada-- Bush by 20,000 (3%)
New Mexico-- Bush by 6,000 (1%)
Ohio-- Bush by "110,000" (2%)
The left "will not support" a candidate like Hillary Clinton just like the right "will not accept" a nominee like John Roberts. In both cases they'll eat it, and they'll like it.
People vote for personality. Drones lose elections (see Kerry, Gore, Dole, Bush 1, Dukakis). Hillary Clinton, whatever she may be, is not a drone. Bush had every advantage in the world and barely won the election; he is very lucky Hillary misread the future and sat out 2004.
More ominously, polarizing figures win elections: GWB, Clinton, Reagan, Nixon, LBJ, Truman, FDR.... whereas the more boring candidate always loses. This holds true even for candidates who inspire abject hatred (see the above list).
The last genuinely compelling loser was Goldwater, who ran under unique circumstances. And Johnson was as galvanic as Goldwater anyhow. Kennedy/Nixon was also fairly even.
The most recent candidate to be more charismatic than their opponent yet lose was Al Smith, in 1928. The GOP has a lot to fear from a Clinton candidacy. A lot.
Agree and disagree - Hillary will probably be the nominee and, no matter what their gripe, the Left will dutifully march to the polls and vote for her.
That said, I don't see a single state you listed that Hillary could capture. Certainly not CO, FL, LA, MO, NV - maybe NM. Ohio needs some attention but it's essentially a Republican state. Bush still won there despite a rocky economy and an unpopular GOP governor (the recently indicted Taft).
I have been a Republican activist since 1959. I have a little perspective. If gas prices are as high or higher than now in 2006, and the war is in its current status, that election will be a disaster for us. If that occurs,the aforementioned projection will have to revised. If gas prices or the war corrects, this projection may be correct. Interesting that disaster in 2006 could lead to certain Republican victory in 2008, as the Democrats go crazy left. No disaster in 2006 could lead to a nail biter in 2008, as the Democrats pick a DLC type. Right now these are just thoughts of mine not projections
A logical, well-reasoned position, AR/MI Rep. A first here? Could be!
I see some trolls have stopped by.
Hillary will not win any state Bush own except possibly New Mexico. (I live here, and think she could squeak by). But, if that happens, so what, because New Hapmshire will go back into the red column, pretty much evening that out.
If anything, she'll lose another state or two to the Republican candidate. She is a media creation, from the same media who we all know lies and distorts every single day to us. People forget, for all of his popularity her husband never got a majority to vote for him like Bush did.
By the way, I hope former Senator and actor Fred Thompson runs. I guarantee you he would win.
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