The problem and prospects of Social Security

David Brooks frames the debate over Social Security reform:

The outline of the problem is clear. When the Social Security program was created, there were 42 workers for each retiree. Now there are about three workers per retiree, and in 2030 there will be two.

The White House is heading toward a reform plan that would tie the benefit levels to prices rather than wages, which is a serious benefit cut. It would then use the power of the markets to compensate retirees for those cuts and to create a reserve fund to make the system solvent.

And he's cautiously optimistic that a compromise can be reached:

I may be a complete idiot, but I actually believe that Democrats and Republicans can reach a grand bargain that includes personal Social Security accounts while addressing Democratic objections.

I disagree: the Democratic Party has become a completely reactionary entity in Washington, poised to simply oppose any reforms that the White House puts forward. They do so at their own peril since around 2018 the Social Security trust fund will start cashing in the billions in IOUs it has in government bonds. This will put a huge strain on the U.S. Treasury and only then will we see the enormity of the mistake of avoiding reform. (Hat tip to Betsy, who has some thoughts of her own).