Monday, August 31, 2009
The ways of the world - Old Jarhead: "Twenty economic facts of life." #1 might be good enough: "People do more of what they're rewarded for doing and avoid what they're punished for doing." (H/T Maggie)
A nation of laws, until we have to follow them - Remember that law the Democrats in Massachusetts passed for a special election in case a Senate seat needed to be replaced? As Emily Litella would say "never mind": "Gears move on possibly naming Kennedy replacement." Because the "voice in the Senate" is critical when it's not appointed by a Republican governor.
Crimson tide
Robert Samuelson surveys the ocean of debt:
Robert Samuelson surveys the ocean of debt:
In 1946, after World War II, the ratio of publicly held federal debt to GDP was 108.6 percent. Since then, the economy (our income) has generally grown faster than the debt. In 1974, the debt-to-GDP ratio reached a post-World War II low of 23.9 percent, and even in 2007, it was only 36.9 percent. That was manageable.Uncharacteristically, Samuelson doesn't even mention the unfunded liabilities of entitlement programs and government pensions which have swollen full of promise without the means to pay. La-dee-da, let's spend another trillion dollars:
By contrast, today's prospective colossal borrowings dwarf likely economic growth. The Obama administration's latest projections, released last week, show nearly $11 trillion of borrowing from 2009 to 2019. In 2019, the debt-to-GDP ratio would be 76.5 percent. This could be too optimistic, because it assumes some spending restraint and tax increases. A projection by the Concord Coalition, a watchdog group, adds about $5 trillion in borrowing in that period. In 2019, the debt-to-GDP ratio could be roughly 100 percent.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Langewiesche - I was following a link on Instapundit to the Top 10 books that don't get enough respect and suddenly I was face-to-face with "The Outlaw Sea." That book is on my shelf after reading Mr. L's articles in Atlantic magazine and it's a good'un, mostly for its portrayal of modern-day pirates, long before Navy Seals got involved.
It's a wonder(wall) he's lasted this long - Noel Gallagher (the talented one) quits Oasis, claiming he just can't work with his brother Liam anymore.
I'm a Marxist - Go over to Maggie's Farm to see Chico Marx play the piano with an apple. He makes it look so effortless.
Problem solved! (claps hands)
The adults in the room
I love the first two grafs of this WashPost story: "Tax pledge is a target as deficits, debt grow – Obama advisers will not rule out broad-based tax hike"
I love the first two grafs of this WashPost story: "Tax pledge is a target as deficits, debt grow – Obama advisers will not rule out broad-based tax hike"
During last year's campaign, President Obama vowed to enact a bold agenda without raising taxes for the middle class, a pledge budget experts viewed with skepticism. Since then, a severe recession, massive deficits and a national debt that is swelling toward a 50-year high have only made his promise harder to keep.In other words, junior senator Barack Obama is stamping his feet and screaming "no!" while the big men are insisting: "We're going to have to eat that spinach."
The Obama administration has insisted that the pledge will stand. But the president's top economic advisers have refused to rule out broad-based tax increases to close the yawning gap between federal revenue and government spending and are warning of tough choices ahead.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Lots of zeros - Greg Mankiw notes the economic hole we're facing over the next decade is closer to $14 trillion than the White House estimate of $9 trillion. Hey, what's an extra $5 trillion among friends?
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Stand back, ma'am, I'm an economist - Political Math strikes back at Paul Krugman's deficit calculations in "How big is $9 trillion." It's really big and intractable problem when mandatory spending (i.e. entitlements) is growing faster than our ability to raise revenues.
Blogging from 30,000 feet
I got a promotional card to access WiFi on the plane so I'm typing this from high above Georgia, or maybe South Carolina. Technology! Everybody needs access to the Net all the time. By the way, after a couple days at the SPE conference and a couple hours wandering through airports, I can see why the smartphones are called "Crackberry." Geez, give it a rest already.
Here's my first sky-high link: Ted Kennedy's death just like 9/11.
If you want to ask a question in a public forum, apparently you need ID.
For government-run health care, not so much.
Access in Austin
I refused to pay the $10/day fee to access the Internet at my hotel so I've been out of the loop since Monday. But now I'm in the Austin/Bergstrom airport and they have free access.
I can't possibly add anything about Ted Kennedy. Rest in peace, and all that. What I'm waiting to see now is if the Massachusetts State House circumvents their own law of Senatorial succession, the one they passed when they feared that Republican governor Mitt Romney might appoint a replacement for John Kerry. Special election? Nah, never mind.
I managed to catch Austin's famous live music scene and it was a treat to hear bands playing all styles of music from rooftops and alleyways and concert halls.
My presentation to the Society of Petroleum Engineers went well. Those Texans are really down-to-earth (get it?) Everybody but everybody has a Blackberry/smartphone nowadays. I think my phone has a calculator.
I refused to pay the $10/day fee to access the Internet at my hotel so I've been out of the loop since Monday. But now I'm in the Austin/Bergstrom airport and they have free access.
I can't possibly add anything about Ted Kennedy. Rest in peace, and all that. What I'm waiting to see now is if the Massachusetts State House circumvents their own law of Senatorial succession, the one they passed when they feared that Republican governor Mitt Romney might appoint a replacement for John Kerry. Special election? Nah, never mind.
I managed to catch Austin's famous live music scene and it was a treat to hear bands playing all styles of music from rooftops and alleyways and concert halls.
My presentation to the Society of Petroleum Engineers went well. Those Texans are really down-to-earth (get it?) Everybody but everybody has a Blackberry/smartphone nowadays. I think my phone has a calculator.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
"High Fidelity" for the tween set
This weekend, I took the kids to see "Bandslam" which is a "battle of the bands" movie set in New Jersey. On the surface, it's one big movie cliche: there's the unpopular music-genius kid, the blonde cheerleader, and the bookish, brooding but pretty girl who comes to life at the big competition.
Her name, by the way is Sa5m (the 5 is silent), Vanessa Hudgens up there.
Somehow it all comes together in an upbeat ska rendition of Bread's cheesy classic "Everything I own." Check it out.
This weekend, I took the kids to see "Bandslam" which is a "battle of the bands" movie set in New Jersey. On the surface, it's one big movie cliche: there's the unpopular music-genius kid, the blonde cheerleader, and the bookish, brooding but pretty girl who comes to life at the big competition.Her name, by the way is Sa5m (the 5 is silent), Vanessa Hudgens up there.
Somehow it all comes together in an upbeat ska rendition of Bread's cheesy classic "Everything I own." Check it out.
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